Category: Wheat

Bearish for prices: Russian wheat exports are forecast to rise to 44 million tonnes in 2025/26 MY, adding supply from the world’s largest exporter. Logistics strength: Rail grain exports are set to exceed 20 million tonnes, reflecting a 25% YoY increase and improved inland logistics capacity. Quality support: Over 84% of monitored wheat in Altai Krai meets…

Prices: Ukrainian milling wheat fell to USD 210-219/ton CPT across major ports as of December 10, 2025. Russia: 2025 wheat harvest estimates increased to 88.5-89 million tons, adding export competition. Logistics: Military disruptions in Ukraine and inland transport constraints in Russia continue to pressure margins and flows. Sentiment: Overall Black Sea wheat market tone remains…

Russian edge on quality: Low protein levels (9–10%) in Argentine wheat and quality discounts on Southern Hemisphere supplies support premiums for Russian origin. Stable price spreads: Russian wheat maintains tight price spreads of $3–5/ton versus $15–20/ton in Argentina, signaling reduced basis volatility for buyers. Uzbekistan demand softens: Wheat imports projected at 4.3 MMT in 2025/26,…

Bullish: Higher Russian and global wheat production alongside stable EU exports improves overall supply security into 2025/26. Bearish: Steady Russian export forecasts and competitive Black Sea pricing around $263/tonne C&F point to ongoing pressure on international wheat prices. Structural: Russia’s move to anonymous exchange trading via Novorossiysk could create a new benchmark and increase market…

Supportive: Uzbekistan to raise total cotton and grain support to 34.2 trillion soums in 2026, bolstering domestic wheat production. Neutral: Despite higher subsidies and digitalization, the overall impact on Black Sea wheat trade is expected to remain limited. Structural: Shift to a credit rating-based loan system and digital “Agrosubsidia” platform aims to improve financial discipline…

Bearish – Ukraine: Wheat export prices at ports fell by USD 3–4/tonne amid softer external demand, with milling wheat at USD 212–220/tonne and feed wheat at USD 204–212/tonne CPT-port. Neutral – Domestic Ukraine: Internal wheat prices in UAH remained broadly stable, supported by processor demand and high logistics costs despite weaker export momentum. Neutral –…

Bearish domestic trend: Russian producer wheat prices fell 5.3% year-on-year to RUB 12,293/MT, with key export regions like Southern Russia seeing notable declines. Export strength: December wheat exports are forecast at 4.3 million MT, above last year and the five-year average, with 900,000 MT already shipped in the first eight days. Competitive FOB pricing: Russian…

Bullish: Russia eliminates wheat export duty and offers higher food-grade share, improving price competitiveness versus lower-protein Southern Hemisphere wheat. Bearish: Large harvests in Argentina and Australia, weaker Chinese demand for Russian wheat, and lower Novorossiysk loadings weigh on global price sentiment. Russia Removes Wheat Export Duty The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has reduced the wheat…

Bullish: Expectations for slightly tighter U.S. wheat ending stocks in the upcoming USDA WASDE report could offer support to global wheat prices. Bearish: Strong French wheat crop conditions and a record Canadian canola harvest forecast are adding competitive pressure and weighing on futures. Neutral: Markets are largely in a holding pattern as traders await key…

Bearish wheat & corn: Russian export duties for wheat, corn, and barley are set to zero for December 10–16, increasing competitive Black Sea supply. Price pressure: Falling indicative prices for wheat and corn below the base level trigger zero duty, adding short-term downward pressure on global grain prices. Export incentive: Removal of the tax allows…