Category: Wheat

Trade Resumption: China has booked its first Argentine wheat cargo in around 30 years via state-owned Cofco International. Competitive Supply: Record Argentine harvest and lower export duties to 7.5% are making its wheat among the cheapest globally. Market Impact: Neutral to slightly bearish for Black Sea wheat as Argentina competes more aggressively in Asian destinations,…

Stable exports: Weekly wheat loadings at Novorossiysk eased just 2.8% to 449.7 thousand tons, signaling steady Black Sea export flows. Diversified demand: Oman, Sudan, and Turkey each took more than 60 thousand tons, highlighting broad MENA regional demand. Neutral sentiment: A minor volume decline and continued robust shipments keep overall market sentiment neutral for now.…

Extended hours: Euronext will add a two-hour evening session (18:30–20:30 CET) for milling wheat, corn, and rapeseed futures starting February 2. Settlement unchanged: The official closing and settlement price remains the 18:30 CET level; evening trades are marked to that price. Liquidity impact: Longer hours may enhance price discovery and flexibility for European and Black…

Bullish: Larger-than-expected 2025 Russian wheat and total grain crop, including a projected 88.5–89 million tons of wheat and record legume output, increases overall supply. Bearish: Historic low share of production in export-oriented southern regions raises logistics costs and may restrict effective export flows despite strong harvest volumes. Russia Ups 2025 Wheat Harvest Outlook Russia’s 2025…

Tunisia’s grain agency ODC purchased a total of 350,000 tons of grain (soft wheat, durum wheat, and feed barley) in its December 11 international tender for delivery between January and March 2026. Soft wheat prices were tightly ranged at $255.77–$257.14/ton C&F, while durum wheat traded at a roughly 24% premium and barley cleared at $269.12/ton…

Prices ease: Feed wheat at Greater Odessa ports slipped by USD 1-2/ton to USD 204-211/ton CPT as of December 11. Downward pressure: Weakness in milling wheat and Russian attacks on port infrastructure weighed on values. Limited downside: Tight regional grain supply and firmer demand for feed wheat versus milling wheat helped cushion the decline. Sentiment:…

Bearish for prices: Russian wheat exports are forecast to rise to 44 million tonnes in 2025/26 MY, adding supply from the world’s largest exporter. Logistics strength: Rail grain exports are set to exceed 20 million tonnes, reflecting a 25% YoY increase and improved inland logistics capacity. Quality support: Over 84% of monitored wheat in Altai Krai meets…

Prices: Ukrainian milling wheat fell to USD 210-219/ton CPT across major ports as of December 10, 2025. Russia: 2025 wheat harvest estimates increased to 88.5-89 million tons, adding export competition. Logistics: Military disruptions in Ukraine and inland transport constraints in Russia continue to pressure margins and flows. Sentiment: Overall Black Sea wheat market tone remains…

Russian edge on quality: Low protein levels (9–10%) in Argentine wheat and quality discounts on Southern Hemisphere supplies support premiums for Russian origin. Stable price spreads: Russian wheat maintains tight price spreads of $3–5/ton versus $15–20/ton in Argentina, signaling reduced basis volatility for buyers. Uzbekistan demand softens: Wheat imports projected at 4.3 MMT in 2025/26,…

Bullish: Higher Russian and global wheat production alongside stable EU exports improves overall supply security into 2025/26. Bearish: Steady Russian export forecasts and competitive Black Sea pricing around $263/tonne C&F point to ongoing pressure on international wheat prices. Structural: Russia’s move to anonymous exchange trading via Novorossiysk could create a new benchmark and increase market…