Category: Soybeans

Capacity Expansion: Exoil Group’s new soybean and rapeseed plant is set to double total oilseed processing output from 2026, with potential annual value up to 50 billion rubles. Margin Compression: Southern drought, export duties on oil and meal, inflationary costs, and high interest rates are squeezing processors’ profitability, keeping many near breakeven. Bearish Outlook for Processors:…

Higher Brazilian output: AgRural raised Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean production forecast to 180.4 million tons, 1.9 million tons above the November estimate and 5.2% above last season. Weather-dependent outlook: Favorable December weather supports the upgrade, but final volumes hinge on conditions through February and into March for later areas. Pressure on Black Sea exporters: A larger Brazilian crop…

Logistical risk: Missile damage to Odessa port infrastructure is constraining Ukrainian soybean export activity and may reduce shipment volumes in the coming months. Price resilience: GM soybean bids are stable at USD 420-425/t CPT port, holding at the highest levels since August 2024 despite stalled upside momentum. Regulatory support: The EU’s one-year postponement of EUDR…

Bearish: U.S. soybean industry warns new tariffs on China could repeat past trade war losses of $27 billion and further undermine U.S. export competitiveness. Bearish: Record global soybean stocks projected at 124–125 million tonnes in 2025/26 and a massive South American harvest are expected to pressure soybean meal prices. Neutral to Supportive: Tightening vegetable oil…

Bearish Black Sea imports: Russia’s 2025 soybean crop is forecast up nearly 30% to as high as 9.3 million tons, slashing import needs and weighing on regional import demand. Bullish export potential: Strong production gains in Amur, Primorsky, Tambov, Belgorod, and Kursk could reposition Russia as a net soybean/meal exporter into Asian, European, and Middle…

Key Takeaways Ukrainian soybean exports reached approximately 200,000 tons by December 15, with shipment activity expected to slow toward month-end. Port quotations stabilized in the $422-427/mt range, showing slight weakness following a broader global price correction. Domestic processors remain active and competitive buyers, with favorable crushing margins helping to support local soybean prices. Market sentiment…

Compliance Risk: Ukrainian authorities seized 7,500 tons of soybeans linked to forged export documentation, signaling tighter enforcement. Logistics Impact: Short-term logistical uncertainty at Odesa port as inspections and document checks intensify. Market Scope: Seized volume exceeds UAH 103 million (~USD 2.5 million) but represents a modest share of Ukraine’s soybean export capacity. Trade Flows: Blocked…

Structural shift: Goldman Sachs projects China could cut soybean import dependency from 90% to 30% by 2034. Demand reduction: Chinese oilseed consumption has already declined by 15 million tons between 2021–2024. Feed reformulation: Lower soybean meal inclusion and efficiency gains in feed processing are curbing import needs. Domestic substitution: Expansion of high-protein corn cultivation aims…

Bullish: Ukrainian soybean export prices climbed to USD 420–428/t CPT port on tight domestic supply and strong competition among buyers. Bearish: Global soybean prices remain pressured by weak Chinese demand for US soy, lower Argentine export duties, and strong Brazilian crop prospects. Neutral: Soybean meal export price growth has stalled as demand slows, keeping values…

Bearish US & Black Sea: Brazil’s soybean export potential is projected to jump to 115 million tons in 2026, reinforcing its dominance and eroding market share for competing origins. Bearish Prices: Expanded Brazilian production to 178 million tons and higher carryover stocks of 7–8 million tons are likely to pressure international soybean prices. Export Momentum:…