Category: Soybeans

Export surge: Argentina’s 2025 soybean exports are projected to jump 172% year-on-year to over 12.5 million tons, led by Chinese demand. China-driven demand: China accounts for 85% of December 2025 shipments and an estimated 11.6 million tons of full-year imports from Argentina. Mixed fundamentals: Slower planting progress and lower soybean oil and meal exports contrast…

US soybean crush in November 2025 reached 6.0 million tonnes, missing expectations and down from October’s 6.43 million tonnes. Despite the monthly decline, September–November 2025 soybean crush rose 8.6% year-on-year to 18.1 million tonnes. Reduced US crush in November implies slightly tighter soymeal and soyoil supplies, which is Neutral to Slightly Bullish for Black Sea…

Argentina’s soybean crush fell to 3.49 MMT in November, a 0.55 MMT month-on-month drop to a 3‑month low amid strong export demand and seasonal supply tightening. Meal and oil inventories declined sharply, with soybean meal stocks down 32% to 728,000 tonnes, tightening near-term product availability. Sunflower seed processing hit a 9‑month low at 306,000 tonnes,…

Bullish: Argentine field trials show soybean yields rising 77% (2.6 to 4.6 t/ha) and corn yields up 7,000 kg/ha using pig wastewater technology, with notable long-term soil fertility gains. Bearish: Potential future expansion of this technology in South America could add to global soybean supply and pressure prices, while rising Russian fertilizer output may raise…

VAL’s $100M second crushing line lifts total daily capacity to 7,800 tonnes, solidifying Vietnam’s role as a major regional soybean processor. Annual output of 2 million tonnes of soybean meal and 500,000 tonnes of crude oil will cover ~30% of Vietnam’s feed demand and curb dependence on imported meal. Market impact is neutral to bearish…

Bearish for Argentina: Soybean oil exports fell 19% month-on-month in November to 524,000 tons, with stocks tightening to 4.5 million tons. Supportive for Black Sea oils: Reduced Argentine export pressure may create room for Black Sea sunflower oil to gain market share, especially in India. Stable Asian demand: India and Nepal absorbed 65% of Argentina’s…

Bullish: Expanded crushing capacity in Vietnam and strong Chinese demand underpin sustained global soybean meal and oil consumption. Bearish: Argentina’s aggressive export surge and record Brazilian shipments intensify competition, pressuring Black Sea soybean margins. Neutral to Bearish Black Sea: Mexico’s deepening reliance on U.S. soybeans and Asia’s tilt toward South American origins limit outlet options.…

Capacity Expansion: Exoil Group’s new soybean and rapeseed plant is set to double total oilseed processing output from 2026, with potential annual value up to 50 billion rubles. Margin Compression: Southern drought, export duties on oil and meal, inflationary costs, and high interest rates are squeezing processors’ profitability, keeping many near breakeven. Bearish Outlook for Processors:…

Higher Brazilian output: AgRural raised Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean production forecast to 180.4 million tons, 1.9 million tons above the November estimate and 5.2% above last season. Weather-dependent outlook: Favorable December weather supports the upgrade, but final volumes hinge on conditions through February and into March for later areas. Pressure on Black Sea exporters: A larger Brazilian crop…

Logistical risk: Missile damage to Odessa port infrastructure is constraining Ukrainian soybean export activity and may reduce shipment volumes in the coming months. Price resilience: GM soybean bids are stable at USD 420-425/t CPT port, holding at the highest levels since August 2024 despite stalled upside momentum. Regulatory support: The EU’s one-year postponement of EUDR…