Category: Freight

Bearish for Ukrainian ag exports: Poland is pushing for automatic duties once Ukrainian imports exceed historical averages and demanding stricter quality and safety checks. Supportive for EU farmers: Proposal for a compensation fund and tighter monitoring aims to shield EU producers from competitive pressure in grain, sugar, and poultry. Policy risk for trade flows: Monthly,…

Strategic pivot: Kazakhstan is increasingly using Azerbaijan as a key export corridor for grain flows to the Caucasus, Turkey, Iran, and the broader Middle East. Logistics capacity: AGT Cargo supports the route with 923 dedicated railcars and its own grain terminal infrastructure, enhancing reliability and throughput. Route diversification: Leveraging the North-South and Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railways reduces…

Regulatory risk: Four EU member states are pushing for tighter standards and safeguards on Ukrainian agricultural imports, raising uncertainty for Q1 2026 trade flows. Producer protection: Proposed alignment of Ukrainian import standards with EU rules and a new compensation fund could support EU farmers in sensitive sectors. Bearish for Black Sea grain: Potential restrictions on…

Bearish Ukraine freight: Grain exports are down 28% year-on-year, reducing Black Sea shipping demand, especially on Ukraine–MENA routes. Bullish Russian oilseed flows: New flaxseed oil capacity (120,000 tons) and strong sunflower oil positions support expanded export and logistics activity. Higher Russian inland costs: Rail freight tariff increases from 2026 will modestly raise export logistics costs…

Zero duties extended: Russia will keep export duties at zero for wheat, barley, and corn from January 28 to February 3, the third straight week for wheat. Mixed price action: Wheat and barley indicative prices eased, while corn strengthened on tighter supply-demand fundamentals. Stable base prices: Ruble-denominated base prices remain unchanged, giving exporters clearer margin…

Bearish sunflower & soybean flows: Russian oil & fat exports fell 12% YoY to 10.8 million tons in 2025, with sunflower oil down 22% and soybean oil also lower, pressuring Black Sea freight demand. Mixed grain outlook: Rostov Region grain exports dropped 19.8% season-to-date, cutting cargo availability, but price corrections and 2026 rebound expectations may…

Logistics Upgrade: Russia’s Export Center will open a temporary storage warehouse near Istanbul in February to streamline Black Sea agricultural exports, especially oilseeds. Strategic Market: Turkey imports around 912,000 tons of Russian sunflower oil annually and leads in sunflower meal purchases at an expected 783,000 tons. Value-Added Services: The facility offers competitive rates, Russian-speaking staff,…

Bullish: Kazakhstan’s lentil exports surged 10.8x since 2021, solidifying its position as a top-5 global supplier and supporting strong export demand. Bullish: Record 2025 legume harvest of 1.1 million tons underpins continued growth in export volumes and freight activity. Bearish: Intensifying competition with established exporters like Canada and Australia may pressure margins and basis levels…

Hungary Emerges as Key Corridor: Ukrainian grain rail exports have pivoted toward Hungary, with flows rising to 58.4 railcars/day in January, making it the dominant route. Alternative Routes Weaken: Rail grain transfers via Slovakia, Poland, and Romania have all declined, led by Slovakia’s 8.1 railcars/day drop to 22.9 railcars/day. Logistics Risk Concentration: The growing reliance…

Ukrainian Port Logistics Weaken as Grain Railcar Unloading Declines Average daily grain railcar unloading at Greater Odesa ports fell to 1,175 units on January 22, down 33 railcars week-on-week. Railcars en route to Greater Odesa ports decreased to 8,337 units, indicating reduced freight flow into Ukraine’s main grain corridor. Danube ports saw a marginal pickup,…