Category: Freight

Sharp volume declines: Taman Grain Terminal Complex exports dropped 56.8% to 2.42 million tons in 2025, while Novorossiysk Grain Terminal volumes fell 24.4% to 5.47 million tons. Quota-driven constraints: Russian grain export quota for Feb 15–Jun 30, 2025 was cut to 10.6 million tons versus 29 million tons in 2024, materially limiting flows. Capex amid…

Route diversification: Kazakhstan successfully tested the Trans-Caspian International Transit Route (TITR) for grain exports to Antwerp, opening an alternative to Russian-controlled northern routes. Cost advantage: Freight costs via TITR are lower than the traditional Northern Corridor while maintaining a similar 30-day transit time. Competitive positioning: Lower logistics costs could enhance Kazakh grain competitiveness in EU…

Russian Baltic exports disrupted: Severe ice in the Gulf of Finland is slowing vessel movements, extending escort times to 8–12 hours and risking full navigation halt from February 19. Ukraine shifts to value-added exports: Overall agricultural exports fell 9% to $22.71 billion in 2025, but processed products surged to $4.4 billion, nearly 20% of export value. Caspian…

Funding Boost: USDA commits over $212 million to strengthen U.S. agricultural export promotion efforts. Program Allocation: $181 million goes to 68 organizations via MAP, while $31 million supports 18 groups under FMD. Competitive Pressure: Enhanced U.S. marketing may slightly pressure Black Sea exporters in overlapping destination markets. Freight & FOB Impact: Potential shifts in sourcing…

Ownership Change: EBRD has completed the sale of its 100% stake in Danube Logistics, operator of Giurgiulesti International Free Port, to Romania’s state-owned Port of Constanta. Investment Commitment: The Port of Constanta plans substantial long-term infrastructure investments to expand capacity, upgrade facilities, and enhance regional competitiveness. Stronger Fundamentals: Since EBRD’s 2021 acquisition, Giurgiulesti has delivered…

Bearish for Ukrainian grain: Nitrogen fertilizer deficit of 100,000–170,000 tons threatens spring sowing and yield potential. Structural supply shock: Domestic ammonium nitrate production fell 49% from 1.99 million tons (2024-25) to 1.016 million tons (2025-26) due to infrastructure attacks and power disruptions. Regulatory bottleneck: Continued ban on calcium ammonium nitrate imports, despite its non-explosive classification…

Bullish – Black Sea Sunflower Meal: China’s domestic sunflower meal covers only 16% of feed demand, creating a structural import gap that supports sustained Black Sea export flows. Neutral/Bearish – Russian Sugar: Export push above 1 million tons is constrained by logistics and weaker global prices, while shrinking farmer margins signal medium-term supply risks. Bullish…

Exports Down but Still Dominant: Ukraine’s agricultural exports fell 9% to $22.71 billion in 2025 but still accounted for 56% of total exports. Shift to Value-Added Goods: Processed agricultural products grew to about 20% of total agri exports, signaling a move toward higher-margin, value-added trade. Imports Rising: Agricultural imports rose 13% to $9.12 billion, pushing total agri…

Livestock output rising: Sector gross output reached 3.8 trillion tenge by end-2025, up from 3.3 trillion in 2024 and now accounts for 39% of total agricultural output. Consolidation push: Industry leaders are advancing a market consolidation framework to improve pricing transparency and secure export supplies. Policy support: Government plans include preferential lending at 5–6% and…

Neutral for wheat: Resurs Group’s wheat exports held steady at 1 million tonnes, with Egypt tripling purchases, indicating firm demand but no clear supply squeeze. Slightly bearish for oilseeds: A 10% drop in sunflower oil exports and pricing pressure in oilseed markets suggest softer fundamentals despite ongoing regional demand. Supportive for Black Sea grain flows:…