Category: Freight

Bullish: French Senalia terminal targets a 111% jump in 2025/26 grain exports to 3.8 million tons, driven by strong feed barley demand and expanded Middle East routes, including new sales to Iraq. Bearish: Ukrainian grain exports in 2024/25 are down 31% year-on-year to 16.376 million tons, with sharply lower January volumes, signaling ongoing logistical and production headwinds…

Kazakhstan’s wheat flour exports to Afghanistan declined 9.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025/26, falling to 321,000 tons. Shipments to Uzbekistan dropped 18.8% over the same period, totaling 102,700 tons. Combined exports to both key markets decreased by around 58,800 tons, signaling softer regional demand or stronger competition. For Black Sea traders, the impact…

Ukrainian agricultural road exports fell 65% in January to 3,700 tons/day from 10,400 tons/day in December. First-week January shipments totaled 22,800 tons, nearly three times lower than December’s 81,200 tons for the same period. Seasonal weakness and border clearance inefficiencies are the main drivers of the contraction. A gradual recovery in volumes is expected in…

Regulatory correction: Kazakhstan’s competition authority ordered Food Contract Corporation to fix anticompetitive practices in grain transportation subsidy distribution. Process reform: Over 60% of subsidies had gone to a limited group, with application review times ranging from same-day to 80–112 days, prompting mandatory procedural changes. Digital transparency: A new electronic portal and public tracking of applications…

Bearish: Ukrainian rail grain transportation fell 27.3% in 2025 to 28.856 million tons amid weaker prices and logistical bottlenecks. Bearish: Export rail shipments declined 25.3% to 25.481 million tons, while domestic grain transport collapsed 42.9% to 3.024 million tons. Bearish: Seaports handled 92% of grain exports, highlighting concentrated infrastructure risk for Black Sea logistics. Neutral…

Structural capacity cut: Ukrzaliznytsia’s CTL branch plans to reduce its active grain car fleet to around 800 units by end-2026, tightening rail logistics for agricultural exports. Selective repairs: Only grain cars backed by confirmed long-term commitments will be repaired in 2025, limiting availability for spot or short-term shippers. Contractual imperative: Agricultural exporters are being pushed…

Neutral to Slightly Bearish for Black Sea: China’s growing role as a soybean oil exporter increases competition in key Asian markets traditionally supplied by Black Sea origins. Supportive for Palm Oil: Strong growth in Chinese palm oil imports signals sustained demand for cheaper vegetable oil alternatives over premium Black Sea oils. Moderately Supportive for Sunflower…

Top-5 exporter status: Agroprosperis shipped 3 million tons of grain and oilseeds from Ukraine in 2025, securing a leading role in the country’s export hierarchy. Domestic processing growth: An additional 20,000 tons of oilseeds were processed for the local market, signaling diversification beyond pure export flows. Logistics resilience: Sustained volumes via Black Sea export corridors…

Bearish logistics: Ukrainian grain rail exports to the EU fell sharply in 2025, with overall volumes via key land corridors down to about 1.45 million tons. Route disruption: Rail transfers to Poland and Romania plunged 77% and 88% respectively, signaling severe pressure on traditional western export routes. Cost pressure: Reduced rail capacity and higher dependence…

Export Surge: Kazakhstan’s feed meal exports jumped 157% year-on-year to 2.65 million tons in Jan–Nov 2025. China-Driven Demand: China absorbed 98.9% of volumes, importing 2.62 million tons versus 1.02 million tons a year earlier. Regional Growth: Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Russia all expanded purchases, supporting broader regional trade flows. Logistics Impact: Strong eastbound rail flows to…