Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Russian Soybean Production to Surge 30% in 2025
Bearish Black Sea imports: Russia’s 2025 soybean crop is forecast up nearly 30% to as high as 9.3 million tons, slashing import needs and weighing on regional import demand. Bullish export potential: Strong production gains in Amur, Primorsky, Tambov, Belgorod, and Kursk could reposition Russia as a net soybean/meal exporter into Asian, European, and Middle…
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Ukrainian Feed Barley Prices Fall Amid Port Disruptions
Feed barley prices softened by USD 3–5/ton at Greater Odessa and USD 2–3/ton at Danube ports as of December 18, 2025, despite tight farmer selling. Logistical and geopolitical pressures at Odessa, including higher insurance and freight costs amid ongoing attacks, are constraining exports and weighing on bids. Regional market weakness and Jordan’s lower tender prices amplified bearish sentiment, pushing…
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Russian Wheat Prices Flat into Early 2026 – Market Outlook
Flat pricing outlook: Russian class 4 wheat is currently around 15,100 rubles/ton (ex-VAT) at ports, with similar levels expected in early 2026 amid ample global supplies. Global oversupply: Argentina’s record wheat harvest and strong export program are contributing to a glut that caps upside for international wheat prices. Quality advantage: Poor quality in Argentine wheat…
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Russian Food Producer Prices Fall 0.7% in November
Producer prices fell: Russian food producer prices declined 0.7% month-on-month in November, reversing October’s 0.5% gain and signaling a short-term easing in cost pressures. Inflation still elevated: Despite the monthly drop, food producer prices are up 11.3% in 2024 versus 2% in 2023, with beverages up 11.2%, pointing to persistent inflationary pressure. Mixed sector dynamics:…
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Malaysia Palm Oil Export Duty Cut to 9.5% — Market Impact
Malaysia cut its unrefined palm oil export duty to 9.5% for January 2026 from 10% in December, responding to weaker global prices. The reference price for palm oil fell to 3,946.17 ringgit/tonne from 4,206.38 ringgit, reflecting about a 6% month‑on‑month decline. Impact on Black Sea sunflower oil is mostly neutral, but cheaper Malaysian palm oil…
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Ukrainian soybean exports slow in December amid price dip
Key Takeaways Ukrainian soybean exports reached approximately 200,000 tons by December 15, with shipment activity expected to slow toward month-end. Port quotations stabilized in the $422-427/mt range, showing slight weakness following a broader global price correction. Domestic processors remain active and competitive buyers, with favorable crushing margins helping to support local soybean prices. Market sentiment…
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Jordan Feed Barley Tender: 60,000t at $270/MT
Soufflet wins 60,000 T tender: Jordan books feed barley at $270/MT C&F for March 1–15, 2025 shipment. Narrow bid range signals strong competition: Rival offers from Bunge, Cargill, Olam, and LDC clustered between $271.99–$283/MT. Further demand ahead: Jordan to tender another 120,000 T of feed barley on December 24, supporting regional export flows. Market tone:…
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Brazil Corn Exports Rise to 43M Tons Despite Smaller Harvest
Production: Brazil’s 2025/26 corn harvest is forecast at 133 million tons, down 3 million tons year-on-year due to lower yields. Exports: Corn exports are projected to rise to 43 million tons, supported by strong carryover stocks from the 2024/25 season. Trade Flows: January–November 2025 exports reached 34.8 million tons, with Iran and Egypt as the…
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China Cancels US Wheat Amid Argentine Price Pressure
Key Takeaways China cancellation: China canceled a 132,000-tonne purchase of US white wheat, originally reported on November 20. Price competition: Argentine wheat is reportedly offered at more competitive prices, likely contributing to the shift away from US supplies. Futures under pressure: CBOT wheat futures fell to their lowest level since October 23 on December 17,…
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Ukrainian Grain Exports Surge — Corn Leads Growth
Corn-led surge: Ukrainian corn exports jumped 4.6x year-on-year in early December to 979,000 tonnes, driving overall grain export growth. Diversified demand: Strong buying from Turkey, Algeria, and new Middle Eastern destinations underpins sustained demand for Black Sea grains. Freight support: Higher export volumes are neutral to mildly bullish for Black Sea freight rates as vessel…