Author: Viktoriia Ray
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China Soybean Policy: Yield Focus Threatens Imports
Strategic pivot: China is shifting its soybean policy from expanding planted area to boosting yield and quality through technology and mechanization. Import diversification: Beijing aims to reduce reliance on traditional suppliers like the US and Canada by broadening agricultural import partners, especially in the Global South. Record grain output: China’s total grain production is forecast…
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Russian Wheat Exports Surge Ahead of February Quota
Bullish: February wheat exports are forecast to jump 59% year-on-year to 3.3 million tons amid pre-quota positioning, supporting five-month high Russian FOB prices at $235/t. Bearish: July–January wheat exports are still down 13% year-on-year due to stronger competition from the EU, Australia, and Argentina, which could cap gains once the quota-driven surge fades. Russian Wheat…
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Black Sea Sunflower Oil Hits Weekly High
Bullish: Vegetable oil markets, led by Black Sea sunflower oil and US soybean oil, firmed with several benchmarks hitting weekly or record highs, reflecting tight supply and resilient demand. Bearish: Broad-based declines in soybean and sunflower meal prices signal weaker protein demand and margin pressure for crushers, tempering the overall bullish tone for the oilseed…
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Canadian Canola Exports to China Plunge 92%
Canadian canola exports to China plunged 92% in Aug–Nov 2025 to 0.2 million tonnes, hit by elevated Chinese import duties. Russia captured dominant share of China’s rapeseed oil imports, rising from 2% in 2017 to 59% in 2025, while Canada’s share fell from 94% to 6%. Canadian canola meal flows were successfully redirected, with U.S.…
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South Korea Feed Corn Tender: 134,000t Bought
South Korea secures 134,000 tons of feed corn via NOFI’s international tender on February 3, sourcing from U.S., South African, and South American origins. Prices set a mid-$240s C&F benchmark, with Mitsui and CJ International winning contracts at $243.99 and $242.94 per ton C&F, plus unloading fees. Tender volume undershoots by 35%, signaling neutral-to-bearish sentiment…
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Kazakhstan Wheat Export Surges to Vietnam After 8 Years
Trade Resumption: Kazakhstan shipped over 15,000 tons of wheat to Vietnam in 2025, its first wheat export to the country in eight years. Logistics Upgrade: New multimodal logistics without container reloading cuts delivery time and costs for shipments to Southeast Asia. Diversification Drive: Kazakhstan plans to expand exports to Vietnam beyond wheat to flour, meat…
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Kazakhstan Wheat Exports Hit Record – What’s Next?
Record exports vs. weak margins: Kazakhstan shipped a record 1.7 million tonnes of soft wheat in December 2025, yet farmer profitability remains under pressure from tenge devaluation and tight liquidity. Import paradox: Despite a bumper 2025 harvest, Kazakhstan continues importing around 1.5 million tonnes of Russian grain annually because exchange rate disparities make Russian wheat cheaper for…
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Canadian canola exports plunge – global oilseed impact
Canadian canola exports to China collapsed 92% to 0.2 million tonnes in Aug–Nov 2025 due to prohibitive Chinese tariffs. Canadian soybeans gained share in China, with shipments up 48% YoY to a record 1 million tonnes, capturing 36% of total Canadian soy exports. Canola meal flows were successfully redirected, led by record US imports of…
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Soybean Export Tax Evasion Exposed in Odesa
Odesa-based soybean exporter uncovered evading UAH 18.7 million in taxes on exports to Turkey, Romania, and the UAE. Roughly 10,500 tons of soybeans with undocumented origin, valued at UAH 104 million, were exported via intermediary companies. Case signals tighter oversight and documentation requirements for Black Sea soybean exports, with neutral immediate price impact but higher…
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Ukrainian barley prices hold steady amid slow trade
Prices Stable: Ukrainian feed barley prices held steady last week in both UAH and USD terms. Sluggish Trading: Overall trading and purchasing activity remained slow amid cautious buyer behavior. Limited Supply: Insufficient raw material availability supported prices and prevented downward pressure. Neutral Outlook: Balanced supply-demand conditions kept the market in consolidation without a clear bullish…