Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Russian Wheat FOB Prices Rise Amid Black Sea Disruptions
Bullish Wheat: Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB prices have risen to $228–230/tonne for the second consecutive week amid severe Black Sea port weather disruptions and downgraded January export estimates. Mixed Vegetable Oils: Sunflower oil prices show divergence across agencies and have printed a new Black Sea minimum, while export duty has increased, tempering downside for…
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Ukraine Grain Exports Fall 28% – Freight Market Impact
Bearish Ukraine freight: Grain exports are down 28% year-on-year, reducing Black Sea shipping demand, especially on Ukraine–MENA routes. Bullish Russian oilseed flows: New flaxseed oil capacity (120,000 tons) and strong sunflower oil positions support expanded export and logistics activity. Higher Russian inland costs: Rail freight tariff increases from 2026 will modestly raise export logistics costs…
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Russian Sunflower Oil Export Duty at 9,495 RUB/MT
Policy Signal: Russia sets February 2026 sunflower oil export duty at 9,495 rubles/MT, keeping government pressure on export flows. Supply Risk: Krasnodar Krai sunflower oil output fell 19% in 2025 to 900,000 MT due to adverse weather and lower yields. Meal Support: Sunflower meal export duty stays at zero for a second month, supporting feed…
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Ukrainian rapeseed meal exports: China Overtakes EU
Bullish: Ukrainian rapeseed meal exports surged 70% in July–December 2025/26 to 340,000 tonnes, supported by higher domestic crushing of 800,000 tonnes and strong Chinese demand. Bearish: EU imports collapsed amid Canadian competition, while weak domestic consumption and the risk of China reverting to Canadian supplies create structural downside for margins and export demand. China Overtakes…
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Russian Soybean Oil Exports Jump 11% to MENA in 2025
Export growth: Russian soybean oil exports to MENA reached nearly $290 million in 2025, up 11% year-on-year. Market share: MENA accounted for 43% of total Russian soybean oil export revenue, underscoring the region’s strategic importance. Key buyers: Algeria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel were the top five destination markets. Price tone: Neutral to…
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Argentina corn forecast rises to 57.9 Mt
Forecast Raised: Argentina’s 2025/26 corn crop is now projected at 57.9 million tonnes, up 6% year-on-year. Weather Risk: A 50–70 mm rainfall deficit and persistent hot, dry conditions threaten late-planted corn yields. Global Supply: Higher Argentine output slightly increases global corn supply pressure, weighing on prices. Black Sea Competition: Larger Argentine exports in early 2026…
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Black Sea Sunflower Oil Prices Drop to $1,220/t
Bearish: Sunflower oil FOB Black Sea dropped $30/t to $1,220/t, setting a new low and signaling regional oversupply or weaker export demand. Bullish: Soybean complex and rapeseed oil/seed prices strengthened across major origins, with several benchmarks hitting new maximums or weekly highs. Mixed: Palm and coconut oils showed modest gains or stability, underscoring divergent trends…
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Russian Grain Export Duties Stay Zero Through Feb
Zero duties extended: Russia will keep export duties at zero for wheat, barley, and corn from January 28 to February 3, the third straight week for wheat. Mixed price action: Wheat and barley indicative prices eased, while corn strengthened on tighter supply-demand fundamentals. Stable base prices: Ruble-denominated base prices remain unchanged, giving exporters clearer margin…
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Russian Sunflower Oil Export Duty Rises 2.1% in Feb 2026
Bullish: Rising Russian export duty and higher Ukrainian refined sunflower oil prices signal tightening Black Sea supply and strong export demand. Bullish: Zero export duty on Russian sunflower meal supports crush margins, encouraging continued processing and underpinning oil values. Bullish: Extension of Russia’s “sunflower damper” duty mechanism through August 2028 provides policy stability that can…
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US soybean exports surge 13% in 2024-25
Bullish: Strong global demand pushed U.S. soybean complex exports up 13% year-on-year to 68.7 million metric tons, with record soybean meal and a 304% surge in soybean oil shipments. Bearish: Competitive U.S. pricing and expanding presence in key importers like Turkey and Egypt add neutral-to-slightly bearish pressure on Black Sea soybean exporters. U.S. Soybean Export…