Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Russian Grain Exports Surge as Kazakhstan VAT Bites
Bullish – Russian grain exports: Russian grain shipments rose 6% to 4.5 million tons in January 2026, with wheat exports up 18% to 2.8 million tons, strengthening Russia’s regional market share. Bearish – Kazakhstan competitiveness: Kazakhstan’s new Tax Code cuts VAT refunds on agricultural exports to just 3.2%, creating a 12.8% cost burden and an estimated 120 billion…
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Turkey Feed Barley: TMO Buys 225,000 Tons, Shortfall
Volume Shortfall: TMO secured 225,000 tons of feed barley, about 30,000 tons below the planned 255,000-ton tender volume. Price Benchmark: Successful offers ranged between $266.2 and $279 per ton C&F, setting a near-term reference for Black Sea feed barley values. Port Allocation: Largest allocations go to Bandirma, Izmir, and Mersin at 50,000 tons each, with…
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Ukrainian corn exports slump to 9.37M tons
Bearish: Ukrainian corn exports are down nearly 30% year-on-year, with July–January shipments at their lowest since 2017–2018, signaling weaker export performance. Supportive for prices: Reduced export pace and a cut in Sovecon’s full-season forecast point to tighter Ukrainian supply availability, limiting downside pressure on Black Sea FOB corn prices. Risk Factors: Late harvest, Black Sea…
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Russian Wheat Exports Rise: USDA Boosts 2025/26 Forecast
USDA raised Russia’s 2025/26 wheat export forecast to 44 million tonnes, reinforcing its role as the top global exporter. EU wheat export outlook was cut to 31.5 million tonnes, signaling tighter European export availability. Russia’s feed grain export forecast increased to 7.33 million tonnes, supporting strong Black Sea grain export flows. Russian intervention price cuts…
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Black Sea Sunflower Oil Prices Hold Steady Amid Pressure
Sunflower oil steady: Black Sea sunflower oil held at $1,305/t FOB, marking the weekly high despite broader vegoil headwinds. Soy complex mixed: US soybean oil and beans firmed, while Brazilian and EU soybean oil values eased on ample South American supply. Palm oil under pressure: Malaysian palm oil FOB slipped to $1,067.14/t as buyers shift…
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Black Sea Wheat Gains as France Becomes Net Importer
France turns net agricultural importer: A €300 million deficit in 2025 marks the first negative trade balance for raw farm goods in nearly a decade. Import surge and weak wheat exports: Agricultural imports jumped 9% to a record €19.7 billion as wheat shipments slumped on a poor 2024 harvest. Historic squeeze on overall agri-food surplus:…
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Soybean Oil Prices Rally After India-US Trade Deal
Bullish (Soybean Oil): CBOT soybean oil futures rallied 2.2% to six‑month highs on expectations of stronger Indian demand after the India‑US agricultural trade framework and support from renewed US biodiesel tax incentives. Bearish (Soybean Meal): Chinese soybean meal prices fell nearly 2% amid temporarily high inventories and pressure from Brazil’s bumper soybean harvest, despite fresh…
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Black Sea wheat exporters: EU competition heats up
Key Takeaways Jordan’s MIT purchased 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat at $264.50/tonne C&F for May shipment, confirming steady MENA demand but at disciplined price levels. French soft winter wheat area for the 2026 harvest increased 2.8% year-on-year to 4.6 million hectares, with overall winter grains and rapeseed also expanding. Favorable French and wider EU winter…
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China Oilseed Processing: Export Strategy to Watch
Focus: Chinese Grains & Oils Congress 2026 will examine domestic oilseed processing expansion and vegetable oil export potential in Shanghai on March 5–6, 2026. Strategic Shift: China’s dual role as the world’s largest vegetable oil importer and a growing exporter of selected oils, especially soybean oil, could reshape global trade flows. Market Watch: Black Sea…
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Australian Canola Exports Drop 15% in 2025 — EU Gains
Australian exports slide: Canola exports from Australia declined 15.5% year-on-year to 5.22 million tonnes in 2025. EU demand strengthens: EU imports of Australian canola rose to 3.22 million tonnes, reinforcing its role as the primary destination. Japan demand collapses: Japanese canola imports from Australia plunged 58% to 0.43 million tonnes, opening space for rival origins.…