Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Kazakhstan Grain Exports Surge via Caspian Routes
Logistics Diversification: Kazakhstan is expanding use of Trans-Caspian grain routes to Europe and North Africa, reducing reliance on traditional Black Sea lanes. Stable Russian Flows: Rostov-on-Don handled over 8 million tons and 3,800 vessels in 2025, confirming resilient export activity with wider reach into Asia and Africa. Oilseed Ambitions: Planned investment in Caspian oil-loading terminals…
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Russian Rapeseed Oil Exports Surge 37% in 2025
Exports surge: Russian rapeseed oil exports jumped 37% in 2025 to 1.58 million tons, with revenue up 54% to over $1.6 billion. China dominates demand: China took 90% of Russian rapeseed oil exports (1.4 million tons), 6.5x higher than 2019 levels. New markets emerging: Iran, North Korea, Morocco, Mauritius, and India expanded or resumed imports,…
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Russian Corn Quality Standard Boosts Black Sea Exports
Structural upgrade: Russia’s first national corn quality standard, GOST 35245-2025, took effect on 1 January 2026, formalizing technical conditions for corn grain and cobs. Regional harmonization: Adoption by Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan creates a unified corn quality framework across key Black Sea and Central Asian exporters. Export competitiveness: Expanded criteria for quality, logistics,…
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Ukrainian Wheat Exports Rise on Egypt & Turkey Demand
Key Takeaways Prices edge higher: Ukrainian grade 3 milling wheat export prices rose USD 1–3/ton after a prolonged period of stability. Port quotations strengthen: Greater Odessa ports quote USD 208–216/ton CPT, Danube ports USD 207–214/ton CPT as of February 4, 2026. Stronger MENA demand: Increased buying interest from Egypt and Turkey supported the uptick. Reduced…
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Russian Grain Exports Fall 18.9% in January 2026
Exports Decline: Russian grain exports fell 18.9% year-on-year in January 2026 to 2.99 million tonnes, driven mainly by steep drops in corn and barley shipments. Logistics Strain: Kazakhstan’s rail bottlenecks, with railcar idle times above 10 days at Kostanay, are creating significant delivery risks and cost pressures for regional exporters. Price Competitiveness: Russian wheat remains…
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Ukrainian Sunflower Oil Production Forecast Falls to 4M
Key Takeaways Output Drop: Ukrainian sunflower oil production is forecast at 4 million tons, well below pre-war levels of 5–6 million tons. Smaller Seed Harvest: Sunflower seed output has fallen to about 10 million tons from around 16 million tons before the conflict. Tighter Exports: Limited export availability is expected to support sunflower oil prices…
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China Soybean Policy: Yield Focus Threatens Imports
Strategic pivot: China is shifting its soybean policy from expanding planted area to boosting yield and quality through technology and mechanization. Import diversification: Beijing aims to reduce reliance on traditional suppliers like the US and Canada by broadening agricultural import partners, especially in the Global South. Record grain output: China’s total grain production is forecast…
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Russian Wheat Exports Surge Ahead of February Quota
Bullish: February wheat exports are forecast to jump 59% year-on-year to 3.3 million tons amid pre-quota positioning, supporting five-month high Russian FOB prices at $235/t. Bearish: July–January wheat exports are still down 13% year-on-year due to stronger competition from the EU, Australia, and Argentina, which could cap gains once the quota-driven surge fades. Russian Wheat…
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Black Sea Sunflower Oil Hits Weekly High
Bullish: Vegetable oil markets, led by Black Sea sunflower oil and US soybean oil, firmed with several benchmarks hitting weekly or record highs, reflecting tight supply and resilient demand. Bearish: Broad-based declines in soybean and sunflower meal prices signal weaker protein demand and margin pressure for crushers, tempering the overall bullish tone for the oilseed…
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Canadian Canola Exports to China Plunge 92%
Canadian canola exports to China plunged 92% in Aug–Nov 2025 to 0.2 million tonnes, hit by elevated Chinese import duties. Russia captured dominant share of China’s rapeseed oil imports, rising from 2% in 2017 to 59% in 2025, while Canada’s share fell from 94% to 6%. Canadian canola meal flows were successfully redirected, with U.S.…