Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Ukrainian Wheat Prices Rise on Tight Farmer Supply
Prices Firming: Ukrainian milling wheat export prices rose by USD 1-2/t week-on-week as of February 19 on tight farmer supply. Port Differentials: Greater Odessa ports quoted USD 213-219/t CPT, while Danube ports stood at USD 211-218/t CPT, reflecting strong export demand. Supportive Fundamentals: Limited farmer selling, active exports, domestic processor competition, and weather concerns are…
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Russian Grain Exchange Boosts Farmer Prices
Direct farmer access: NCE’s new spot grain platform enables producers to sell directly to buyers via a two-way anonymous auction. Improved pricing: Farmers can capture roughly a 2-ruble premium per unit versus selling through traditional resellers. Logistics advantage: Trades cover about 50% of Novorossiysk’s accredited terminal capacity, with priority rail allocation from Russian Railways. Scalable…
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Russian Grain Exports Plummet After Quota Cuts
Bearish: Russian grain export volumes through key Black Sea terminals fell sharply in 2025 due to significantly tighter state export quotas. Bearish: Taman grain terminal throughput collapsed 57%, highlighting underutilized infrastructure and constrained global grain supply from Russia. Neutral: Novorossiysk Grain Terminal cushioned the impact by expanding transshipment of molasses and fatty acids, partially offsetting…
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Argentine Sunflower Imports to Bulgaria Hit 400,000t
Import Surge: Bulgaria is set to receive up to 400,000 tonnes of Argentine sunflower seeds, equal to roughly 26–27% of its domestic harvest. Price Pressure: Competitively priced Argentine sunflower at about €520/t DAP Varna/Burgas is likely to pressure Black Sea sunflower seed prices in the near term. Processing Impact: More than 500,000 tonnes of imports…
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US Soybean Crushing Hits Record Pace
Stronger US crush pace: January soybean crushing reached 6.17 million tonnes, up 7% year-on-year, pushing season-to-date volumes to a record 30.5 million tonnes. Rising oil inventories: Soybean oil stocks climbed to 1.12 million tonnes, the highest since April 2023, reflecting softer biodiesel and HVO demand. Pressure on veg oil complex: Higher US output and weaker…
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Ukrainian Wheat Prices to Reach $225/Tonne
Prices Rising: Ukrainian milling wheat seen moving from $215–220/tonne CPT-port to $220–225/tonne by early March on tight supply and strong trader demand. Supply Squeeze: Producers are holding back sales while traders are contracting actively, supporting steady weekly gains of $1–2/tonne. Weather Risk: Ice crust formation after a cold snap threatens winter wheat and rapeseed, adding…
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Russian Grain Exports Plunge Amid Quota Cuts
Sharp volume declines: Taman Grain Terminal Complex exports dropped 56.8% to 2.42 million tons in 2025, while Novorossiysk Grain Terminal volumes fell 24.4% to 5.47 million tons. Quota-driven constraints: Russian grain export quota for Feb 15–Jun 30, 2025 was cut to 10.6 million tons versus 29 million tons in 2024, materially limiting flows. Capex amid…
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Brazil Soybean Exports Surge in Early 2026
Bearish for Black Sea: Brazil’s soybean exports are surging, intensifying competition and pressuring Black Sea soybean and meal prices. Logistics Watch: Weather risks may delay some February shipments into March, but overall export volumes remain significantly higher year-on-year. Processed Products Strength: Rising soybean meal and oil exports from Brazil weigh on Black Sea crush margins…
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Trans-Caspian Grain Exports: Kazakhstan’s New EU Route
Route diversification: Kazakhstan successfully tested the Trans-Caspian International Transit Route (TITR) for grain exports to Antwerp, opening an alternative to Russian-controlled northern routes. Cost advantage: Freight costs via TITR are lower than the traditional Northern Corridor while maintaining a similar 30-day transit time. Competitive positioning: Lower logistics costs could enhance Kazakh grain competitiveness in EU…
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Black Sea Sunflower Oil Hits Weekly Low
Bearish Black Sea sunflower oil: FOB Black Sea prices fell $5.00/t to a weekly low of $1,295.00/t, signaling softer demand or rising supply pressure. Bullish EU protein meals: Soybean meal CIF EU surged $9.95/t to a record $402.98/t, highlighting regional tightness and supporting alternative meals. Bullish Russian export complex: Russia’s 2025 agricultural exports hit $41.6…