Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Russian Wheat Exports to Hit 3.6M Tons in March
Export Surge: Russia’s wheat exports rose 33% year-on-year in February to 2.75 million tons, signaling strong global demand and competitive pricing. March Acceleration: March exports are forecast at 3.6 million tons, nearly double last year’s March volume, pointing to improved logistics and favorable weather. Stable Market Share: Cumulative July–March exports are projected at 36 million…
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Kazakhstan Agricultural Exports Surge Alters Black Sea Trade
Kazakhstan’s agricultural exports surged 37% year-on-year to $7 billion in 2025, underscoring strong international demand. Value-added capacity is rising, with processed agricultural exports climbing 35% to $3.6 billion. Strategic crop diversification cut wheat area by 900,000 ha while expanding oilseeds and legumes, reshaping Black Sea supply dynamics. Record oilseed output of 4.8 million tons positions…
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India Sunflower Oil Imports Drop 45% as Palm Surges
Bullish (Palm & Soybean Oil): Record price discounts and seasonal demand drove India’s palm oil imports to a six‑month high and lifted soybean oil purchases. Bearish (Sunflower Oil – Black Sea): India’s 45% month-on-month drop in sunflower oil imports weighs on Ukrainian and Russian exporters and pressures sunflower oil values. Global Impact: Strong Indian demand…
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Kazakhstan Barley Market Stalls as VAT Uncertainty Grows
Trading Freeze: Kazakhstan barley trade has largely halted, with shipments near a standstill in both domestic and export channels. Price Stability: Domestic prices remain at 87,000–90,000 tenge/t EXW, while export prices hold at $250–260/t FOB Aktau despite minimal activity. Risk Aversion: Uncertainty around VAT procedures and escalating tensions in Iran have pushed market participants into…
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China Sunflower Oil Imports Plunge; Kazakhstan Gains
Kazakhstan Gains Share: China’s sunflower oil imports from Kazakhstan surged, lifting its market share from 10% in 2024 to 28% in 2025 at the expense of Russian and Ukrainian suppliers. Demand Slump: China’s total sunflower oil imports dropped to around 500,000 tons in 2025, a multi-year low as high prices curbed buying interest. Record-Low Stocks:…
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Kazakhstan Sunflower Oil Exports Surge to No.2 in China
Export surge: Kazakhstan’s vegetable oil and meal exports to China jumped 85% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025/26, reinforcing its position as the second-largest sunflower oil supplier to China. Revenue growth: Foreign exchange earnings from exports to China rose 71% to $137 million in early 2025/26, after reaching $255 million over the full…
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Ukrainian Corn Exports Threatened by Chornomorsk Drone Strike
Panamanian-flagged civilian vessel carrying Ukrainian corn was struck by a Russian drone while departing Chornomorsk port on March 4. The ship was using the Ukrainian Maritime Corridor when hit, sustaining damage and causing injuries to crew members. Incident is bearish for Ukrainian corn exports as it may raise freight premiums, increase insurance costs, and disrupt…
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Global Wheat Production 2026/27: IGC Forecasts 2% Drop
Global output risk: IGC projects a 2% decline in global wheat production in 2026/27, tightening balances after a record 2025/26 crop. Record current harvest: Major exporters, led by Russia, Ukraine, and the EU, are set for unprecedented 2025/26 wheat output, supporting ample near-term supply. Demand strength: Food use of wheat is expanding at the fastest…
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China Vegetable Oil Exports Set to Surge in 2025
Export Shift: China’s vegetable oil exports are set to climb sharply from the historical 100,000-ton baseline in 2025, reshaping Asian trade flows. Processing Power: China controls about 25% of global oilseed crushing capacity, exceeding 200 million tons per year, with soybeans making up over 70%. Import Dependence: Despite record harvests, China still imports 100+ million tons of…
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Jordan Feed Barley Tender: Bunge Wins 50,000t
Price Benchmark: Jordan booked 50,000 tons of feed barley at $260.50/ton C&F for June shipment, setting a key Eastern Mediterranean reference. Partial Coverage: Only 42% of the 120,000-ton tender was filled, implying potential follow-up tenders and sustained demand visibility. Competitive Pressure: Bunge undercut rival offers by up to $5.48/ton, signaling strong global supply competition and…