Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Australian Wheat Exports Surge 14% — Black Sea Pressure
Export Surge: Australian wheat exports rose 14% m/m in January 2025 to 2.607 million tonnes, signaling strong demand. Regional Demand: Southeast Asia absorbed over 55% of Australian shipments, with Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand leading purchases. Competitive Pressure: Larger Australian flows and freight advantages are pressuring Black Sea wheat competitiveness in key Asian markets. Market…
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Ukrainian Grain Exports Reach 8.7M Tons YTD
Resilient throughput: Ukrainian ports moved 15.1 million tons YTD 2026, including 8.7 million tons of grain, underscoring continued export capability despite security risks. Odessa concentration: Greater Odessa accounts for 96% of total port volumes, creating a notable concentration risk for Black Sea logistics. Operational corridor: Since September 2023, the Maritime Corridor has enabled 179 million…
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India Sunflower Oil Imports Plunge 45% in Feb
Bearish Black Sea Sunflower Oil: India’s sunflower oil imports plunged 45% month-on-month in February 2026 and are down 21% year-on-year for the November–February period, signaling softer demand from a key buyer. Bullish Palm Oil: Palm oil imports into India rose 11% month-on-month to 847,700 tonnes, underpinning overall growth in total vegetable oil inflows. Neutral-to-Bullish Veg…
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Global Rapeseed Production to Hit Record 86Mt in 2026/27
Record output: Global rapeseed production is projected to reach a record 86+ million tonnes in 2026/27 on the back of expanded acreage and mostly favorable weather. Ample supply: Increased production in the EU, India, and Australia alongside higher Canadian canola acreage points to comfortable global supplies. Pressure on Black Sea: Strong competition from major exporters…
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Russian Soybean Flour Exports Hit Record in 2025
Record exports: Russia shipped 8,500 tons of soybean flour in 2025, a new all-time high worth $4 million. China-led demand: China accounted for over 70% of volumes, reinforcing strong external demand for Russian soybean products. Capacity growth: A 70% jump over the 2014 peak highlights expanding crushing capacity and value-added processing. Neutral to mildly bullish…
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Ukrainian Barley Prices Edge Up on Weather Concerns
Prices Edge Higher: New-crop Ukrainian feed barley export prices rose to USD 206-212/t CPT-port as of March 12, 2026, up USD 1-5/t week-on-week. Weather Risk Premium: Concerns over winter weather damage and higher production costs are providing support to prices. Demand Support: Strong import demand is underpinning Ukraine’s position as a competitive Black Sea barley…
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Russian grain exports surge 2.5x in early March
Surging exports: Russian grain shipments reached 1.36 million tons in March 1–10, up 2.5x year-on-year, led by wheat at 1.29 million tons. Stronger shipment pace: Daily wheat exports averaged 129,200 tons, about 20% above February’s 81,000 tons, signaling sustained export momentum. Route diversification: No March shipments to Iran despite earlier volumes in February, with cargoes…
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Ukrainian Corn Export Fraud: 28,000 Tons Blocked in Odesa
BESU blocked an illegal export of 28,000 tons of corn worth UAH 202 million ($5.5 million) via Odesa port. Fraudulent scheme used shell agricultural companies lacking land, staff, and equipment to simulate corn production. Regulatory scrutiny at Odesa is likely to tighten, potentially increasing compliance burdens and export lead times. Supply impact is limited in…
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EU Wheat Exports Rise 9% — Romania Leads
EU wheat exports up 9%: Shipments reached 16.5 million tonnes in 2025/26 MY (as of March 8), signaling stronger EU presence in global wheat trade. Romania leads wheat flows: Romania shipped 5.35 million tonnes, ahead of France at 4.55 million tonnes, consolidating Black Sea–based EU export leadership. Barley exports surge: EU barley exports jumped 90%…
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Ukraine Certified Grain Elevators Rule Sparks Backlash
Bearish for small/medium producers: Proposed certified elevator requirement would add costs and reduce logistical flexibility for independent farmers. Bullish/neutral for large elevator operators: Mandatory use of certified elevators could funnel more grain volumes through major facilities, supporting utilization and margins. Policy risk: Strong opposition from the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council signals potential delays, amendments, or pushback…