Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Ukrainian Wheat Flour Exports Decline, Risks Grow
Neutral to Bearish Ukraine: Wheat flour exports projected down 2.6% in 2025/26 MY amid a 10% drop in domestic production, limiting export growth. Bullish Russia: Kaluga Region agricultural exports up 10.5% to over $130 million with a target of 50% further growth by 2030. Structural Risk for EU: Russian fertilizers supply 23% of EU imports;…
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Ukrainian Sunflower Oil Prices Jump USD 85/MT
Prices Surge: Ukrainian refined sunflower oil prices have risen by USD 85/MT since the start of the 2025/26 season. Supply Tightness: Smaller-than-expected sunflower harvest and higher input costs are tightening market fundamentals. Strong Demand: Robust export interest and alignment with global vegetable oil trends are keeping the market bullish. Ukrainian Refined Sunflower Oil Market Update…
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EU Rapeseed Imports Down 39% as Ukraine Leads
EU Rapeseed Imports Plunge 39% as Ukraine Maintains Lead Key Takeaways EU rapeseed imports dropped 39% year-on-year to 2.38 million tonnes in 2025/26 (as of Feb 1). Ukraine remains the EU’s top supplier despite a 46.8% fall in volumes and a market share drop from 56.2% to 49.1%. Australian shipments collapsed 60.5% year-on-year, with market…
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Kazakhstan Wheat Reserves Rise to 16.25M Tons
Wheat stocks higher: Kazakhstan’s wheat reserves rose 3.2% year-on-year to 16.25 million tons, reinforcing ample domestic supply and export capacity. Food wheat dominance: Food wheat accounts for 14.3 million tons, or 88% of total wheat stocks, supporting strong milling and export programs. Mixed grain dynamics: Overall grain and legume stocks increased to 20 million tons,…
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Sunflower Seed Import Substitution Hits 50% in Stavropol
Import Substitution Milestone: Domestically bred sunflower seeds in Stavropol Krai rise to 50% of plantings in 2026, up from 30% in 2025. Secured Sowing Campaign: Spring 2026 sowing will cover 1 million hectares with seeds, fertilizers, and fuel already secured. Strong State Support: Agricultural support totals 4.8 billion rubles in 2026, following a 22% year-on-year…
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Russian Wheat Export Duties Remain Zero – Feb 2026
Neutral: Russian wheat, barley, and corn export duties remain at zero for February 11–17, 2026, sustaining Russia’s competitive export position without altering current trade incentives. Mixed price action: Indicative wheat prices are broadly steady, while barley shows a sharp increase and corn eases, hinting at shifting domestic supply-demand balances across feed grains. Stable crop outlook:…
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Black Sea Sunflower Oil Prices Rise Amid Supply Tightness
Bearish (Food Prices): FAO Food Price Index fell 0.4% in January 2026, its fifth consecutive monthly decline, and now stands 22.7% below its March 2022 peak. Bullish (Sunflower Oil): Black Sea sunflower oil prices increased on persistent supply tightness and limited farmer sales after prior months of decline. Neutral (Wheat): Wheat prices remained broadly stable…
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Odesa Railcar Backlog Slows Grain Exports
Average daily grain railcar unloading at Greater Odesa ports fell 20% week-on-week to 915 units/day, signaling worsening congestion. Railcar backlog to Greater Odesa climbed to 9,847 units (about 11 days of unloading at current rates), while loading toward these ports slipped to 853 units/day. Danube ports showed relative improvement, with average daily unloading nearly doubling…
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India Sunflower Oil Imports Fall to Four-Year Low
Bearish for Black Sea sunflower oil: India’s sunflower oil imports are forecast to drop 10% to 2.65 million tonnes in 2025/26, the lowest in four years, as buyers switch to cheaper palm oil. Bullish for palm oil: A wide price discount of over $333/t versus sunflower oil is driving a strong substitution effect, with January…
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EU Barley Exports Surge to Decade High as Black Sea Tightens
Bullish: EU barley exports projected at 11 million tonnes in 2025/26, the highest in a decade, supported by strong feed demand from the Middle East and China. Bearish: Export window may narrow as French supplies decline and new Southern Hemisphere harvests offer buyers alternative origins. Bullish: Tight Black Sea barley availability is boosting EU competitiveness…