Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Ukraine Export Strategy: From Volume to Value
Exports Down: Ukrainian goods exports slipped 3% to $40.5 billion in 2024, remaining below 2022 levels despite modest economic growth. Support Up: Export Credit Agency backing rose 40% in 2025 to UAH 10.43 billion, with officials calling for further scale-up. Value Focus: Policy is pivoting from bulk, low-margin commodities toward higher-value, non-resource exports amid infrastructure limits. Freight Impact:…
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Brazilian Safrinha Corn Planting Accelerates
Accelerated planting: Brazil’s safrinha corn planting has reached 4.7% of planned area, more than double last year’s 2.2% pace. Higher output outlook: 2025/26 Brazilian corn production forecast raised to 136.6 million tonnes, adding 0.6 million tonnes to expected global supply. Export competition: Larger Brazilian supplies in mid-2025 could weigh on Black Sea corn export premiums…
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Russian Wheat Exports Forecast Raised to 45.7 Mt
Export Outlook Raised: SovEcon lifted Russia’s 2025/26 wheat export forecast to 45.7 million tonnes, up 1.1 million tonnes from its prior estimate and 12% above last season. Shipments at Multi‑Year Highs: November exports hit a record 5.2 million tonnes and December reached 4.2 million tonnes, the strongest December volume in eight years. Quota Seen as…
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Ukraine grain exports rise in Jan 2025 — Market Alert
January 2025 grain exports edged up to 2.649 million tons, slightly above January 2024 volumes and signaling a modest acceleration in near-term shipment pace. Total 2025/26 MY exports remained 26.9% below last year at 18.181 million tons, highlighting ongoing supply constraints or delayed flows from Ukraine. Corn and wheat together made up 91% of exports,…
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Russian Soybean Oil Exports Grab 43% of MENA Revenue
Neutral to Bearish Black Sea spreads: Russia’s 11% YoY growth in soybean oil exports to MENA and 43% revenue share may pressure FOB Black Sea vegetable oil premiums. Supportive demand in MENA: Broad-based buying from Algeria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel underpins stable regional demand for Russian soybean oil. Stronger Russian export footing:…
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Poland Tightens Controls on Ukrainian Agricultural Imports
Bearish for Ukrainian ag exports: Poland is pushing for automatic duties once Ukrainian imports exceed historical averages and demanding stricter quality and safety checks. Supportive for EU farmers: Proposal for a compensation fund and tighter monitoring aims to shield EU producers from competitive pressure in grain, sugar, and poultry. Policy risk for trade flows: Monthly,…
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US Soybean Exports Surge 13% in 2024/25 — Market Impact
Export growth: Total US soybean product exports rose 13% year-on-year to 68.7 million tonnes, valued at $29.6 billion. Product mix shift: Soybean oil exports surged 304% to 1.1 million tonnes; soybean meal exports hit a record 16.3 million tonnes (+14%). Demand drivers: Strong global demand, improved market access, and enhanced US price competitiveness underpinned the…
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Ukrainian Feed Corn Prices Rally on Tight Supply
Domestic rally: Ukrainian feed corn prices climbed 100–300 UAH/t to 8,500–10,000 UAH/t CPT on tight farmer selling and strong buyer interest. Export support: Port prices held firm at 203–210 USD/t CPT-port, underpinned by continued strength in the international market. Bullish structure: Limited supply, robust domestic demand, and stable export values create a constructive, bullish outlook…
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Kazakh Grain Exports via Azerbaijan: New Corridor Opens
Strategic pivot: Kazakhstan is increasingly using Azerbaijan as a key export corridor for grain flows to the Caucasus, Turkey, Iran, and the broader Middle East. Logistics capacity: AGT Cargo supports the route with 923 dedicated railcars and its own grain terminal infrastructure, enhancing reliability and throughput. Route diversification: Leveraging the North-South and Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railways reduces…
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Russian Sunflower Oil Export Duty Up for February
Higher duty: Russia’s sunflower oil export duty rises to 9,495 rubles/ton in February, up 196.4 rubles from January on stronger indicative prices. Meal support: Sunflower meal exports keep a zero duty for the second month, maintaining Russia’s competitiveness in global protein feed markets. Firm prices: The indicative sunflower oil price increases to $1,233.3/ton, signaling stable-to-firm…