Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Brazilian Soybeans Top China Imports on Price Edge
Bearish US soybeans: Chinese private crushers favor Brazilian supplies due to a 10-percentage-point tariff advantage (13% vs 3%), limiting commercial demand for US origins. Supportive for Brazilian exports: Record projected Brazilian production of 182.2 million tonnes underpins aggressive forward sales and competitive pricing into China. Neutral to bearish for Black Sea protein complex: Cheaper Brazilian soybeans…
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Argentina Corn Production Threatened by Heat Wave
Bullish Black Sea corn: Argentine heat wave threatens corn yields, tightening global exportable supply and supporting Black Sea FOB prices. Weather risk premium: Limited rainfall before February increases crop stress during critical growth stages, encouraging risk hedging and higher basis levels. Cross-commodity support: Deteriorating sorghum and pasture conditions may shift demand toward imported feed grains.…
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Kazakhstan Wheat Imports Hit 1M Tons as Russia Supplies All
Kazakhstan imports raised: 2025/26 wheat import forecast increased by 400,000 tons to 1.0 million tons. Russian dominance: Around 100% of Kazakhstan’s wheat imports are expected to come from Russia. Strong early-season imports: Kazakhstan already imported 168,900 tons of wheat in September–November 2025. Exports also rising: Wheat and flour export forecast lifted from 12.1 to 12.55…
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Russian Oilseed Exports Face Push Amid Oversupply
Bearish Russia domestic: Severe oversupply in pulses and oilseeds has driven sharp price declines, with green lentils down 68% and soybeans down about 30% year-on-year. Mixed exports & freight: Lower prices could boost Russian export competitiveness and vessel demand, but sanctions, FX volatility, and logistics constraints limit the pace of export growth. Farm margins at…
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Russian Grain Exports Reach 50M Tons in 2025
Neutral: Russia maintained robust 2025 grain exports at 50M tons, including 41M tons of wheat, cementing its role as a key supplier to Africa and the Middle East. Bearish: A 21% contraction in agricultural machinery shipments and 31% drop in key equipment segments signal underinvestment risks for future production capacity. Neutral: Growing pulses exports (around…
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Chinese UCO Prices Surge Above Malaysian Straits
Bullish (China UCO): Pre-Lunar New Year stockpiling, higher logistics costs, and stronger domestic SAF demand have pushed UCO FOB North China to a $26/tonne premium over Straits. Bearish (Straits UCO / Black Sea vegoils): Weak export demand from the Straits amid a strong Malaysian ringgit and only limited, temporary substitution upside for Black Sea sunflower…
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China soybean oil exports surge, reshaping markets
Neutral to Bearish Black Sea Sunflower Oil: China’s rising soybean oil exports intensify competition in key Asian vegetable oil markets, weighing on Black Sea sunflower oil demand. Structural Shift in Trade Flows: Surplus Chinese soybean oil, driven by overbuilt crushing capacity and slowing domestic demand, is reshaping global oilseed and vegoil trade patterns. Support from…
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Ukrainian Feed Corn Prices Edge Higher Amid Tight Supply
Prices Firming: Ukrainian feed corn values at Greater Odessa and Danube ports rose by 1–2 USD/t as supply remains tight. Supply-Demand Imbalance: Strong purchasing interest is outpacing available volumes, lifting bids despite geopolitical and competitive headwinds. Moderately Bullish Tone: Traders show cautious optimism, with opportunities emerging in the price spread between Odessa and Danube ports.…
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Kazakhstan Wheat Prices Surge on Chinese Feed Demand
Bullish: Strong Chinese demand for feed meal is lifting Kazakhstan’s lower-grade wheat prices and creating a price floor despite adequate regional supply. Bearish: Falling flour prices in Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Tajikistan are pressuring margins and limiting the ability of Central Asian buyers to match higher Kazakh wheat offers. Kazakhstan Wheat Market Imbalance A pronounced price…
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Global Vegetable Oil Prices: Mixed Moves Jan 27
Bullish: Rapeseed oil, palm kernel oil, and coconut oil hit fresh highs, while sunflower and rapeseed meals strengthened, underscoring robust demand for vegetable oils and protein meals. Bearish: Brazilian soybean oil and several soybean meal benchmarks softened, highlighting regional oversupply and pressure on South American crush margins. Mixed: Divergent moves between Black Sea, EU, US,…