Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Russian Wheat Quality Edge Spurs Regional Demand
Russian edge on quality: Low protein levels (9–10%) in Argentine wheat and quality discounts on Southern Hemisphere supplies support premiums for Russian origin. Stable price spreads: Russian wheat maintains tight price spreads of $3–5/ton versus $15–20/ton in Argentina, signaling reduced basis volatility for buyers. Uzbekistan demand softens: Wheat imports projected at 4.3 MMT in 2025/26,…
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Russian Wheat Export Forecast Held at 44Mt
Bullish: Higher Russian and global wheat production alongside stable EU exports improves overall supply security into 2025/26. Bearish: Steady Russian export forecasts and competitive Black Sea pricing around $263/tonne C&F point to ongoing pressure on international wheat prices. Structural: Russia’s move to anonymous exchange trading via Novorossiysk could create a new benchmark and increase market…
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Uzbekistan Wheat Subsidy Overhaul for 2026
Supportive: Uzbekistan to raise total cotton and grain support to 34.2 trillion soums in 2026, bolstering domestic wheat production. Neutral: Despite higher subsidies and digitalization, the overall impact on Black Sea wheat trade is expected to remain limited. Structural: Shift to a credit rating-based loan system and digital “Agrosubsidia” platform aims to improve financial discipline…
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Ryazan Region Grain Exports Top 51,000 Tons (2025)
Bullish: Stable outbound grain flows from Russia’s central region support continuity of internal supply chains. Bearish: Export volumes remain modest versus Black Sea terminals, limiting upside for regional freight and export margins. Neutral: Overall impact on Black Sea grain benchmarks and freight rates is assessed as neutral. Ryazan Grain and Quarantine Shipments Overview Rosselkhoznadzor reported…
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Russian Soybean Imports Collapse as Harvest Hits Record
Bearish (Imports): Russian soybean imports fell 63% year-on-year in September–November 2025 to just 0.15 million tons as record domestic output reduced external demand. Structural Shift: A record 9.4–9.5 million ton domestic soybean harvest has effectively eliminated Russia’s reliance on Brazilian supplies and reshaped internal logistics. Global Demand Support: China imported 8.11 million tons of soybeans…
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Rostov Corn Production Falls 20% in 2025
Production down 19.3%: Rostov Oblast corn output fell to 233,300 tons in 2025 despite slightly higher yields. Acreage cutbacks: Planted area shrank by 22,000 hectares as farmers reacted to 2024 weather losses and poor marketing conditions. Yield resilience: Corn yields edged up to 26 c/ha, making it one of only two crops in the region…
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Ukrainian Wheat Prices Fall; Kyrgyzstan Expands Winter Crop
Bearish – Ukraine: Wheat export prices at ports fell by USD 3–4/tonne amid softer external demand, with milling wheat at USD 212–220/tonne and feed wheat at USD 204–212/tonne CPT-port. Neutral – Domestic Ukraine: Internal wheat prices in UAH remained broadly stable, supported by processor demand and high logistics costs despite weaker export momentum. Neutral –…
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Kazakhstan Rail Freight to China Surges 11%
Kazakhstan–China rail exports up 11%: Second track on the Dostyk–Moiynty route boosts eastbound freight flows. Stronger rail performance overall: Operational freight turnover reached 264 billion tonne-km, up 7.4% year-on-year. Backbone export cargo growth: Volumes from key enterprises rose to 80 million tonnes, a 6.5% increase. Trade route implications: Additional eastbound capacity may slightly ease pressure…
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Ukraine Barley Exports Drop 37% as Turkey Surges
Bearish: Ukrainian barley exports fell 37% year-on-year to 1.2 million tonnes in July–November 2025/26, pointing to weaker overall demand. Neutral: Export potential is still forecast to rise 11% to 2.5 million tonnes on the back of a larger 5.3 million tonne harvest. Supportive: Turkey increased its purchases 6.4-fold to 233,000 tonnes, helping diversify demand away…
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South Korea Feed Corn Tender: 132,000t for Q1 2026
South Korea’s KFA purchased 132,000 tons of feed corn for Q1 2026 delivery via international tender. Contract prices ranged from $255 to $256.84 per ton C&F, with an earlier March shipment priced at a premium. Neutral implications for Black Sea corn; “any origin” terms keep competition open among global suppliers. Forward-dated deliveries highlight strong advance…