Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Russian Agricultural Exports Fall 10.3% in Jan-Oct 2025
Exports contract: Russian food and agricultural exports fell 10.3% year-on-year to $31.5 billion in Jan–Oct 2025, extending pressure on outbound Black Sea freight volumes. Imports surge: Agricultural imports jumped 14.2% to $35 billion, flipping the trade balance and signaling stronger inbound logistics demand. Decline moderates: The export drop slowed slightly versus the 11.1% fall through…
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Russian Sunflower Oil Exports Will Top Ukraine in 2025/26
Russia to Lead Exports: Russia is projected to become the world’s largest sunflower oil exporter in 2025/26 with shipments rising to 4.4 million tons. Ukraine’s Market Share Declines: Ukraine’s sunflower oil exports are expected to fall from 4.7 million tons to 4.2 million tons, reducing its export dominance. Tighter Global Supply: Global sunflower oil exports…
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South American Soybean Exports Surge as US Shipments Fall
Bullish South America: Brazil and Argentina sharply increased soybean exports to China, capturing greater global market share. Bearish US & Black Sea: US soybean exports slumped over 50% year-on-year, while increased South American supply pressures global oilseed prices and weighs on Black Sea competitiveness. South American Soybean Export Surge South American exporters strengthened their hold…
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Indonesia corn production surge: Limited Black Sea impact
Supply Growth: Indonesia’s corn harvested area is projected to rise 20.9% YoY to 0.62 million hectares in Nov 2025–Jan 2026, boosting near-term supply. Output Increase: Dry corn production for Nov 2025–Jan 2026 is estimated at 3.93 million tonnes, up 18.96% YoY, with full-year 2025 output seen 9% higher at 16.5 million tonnes. Black Sea Impact:…
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Black Sea Wheat Prices Fall as Russian Output Rises
Prices: Ukrainian milling wheat fell to USD 210-219/ton CPT across major ports as of December 10, 2025. Russia: 2025 wheat harvest estimates increased to 88.5-89 million tons, adding export competition. Logistics: Military disruptions in Ukraine and inland transport constraints in Russia continue to pressure margins and flows. Sentiment: Overall Black Sea wheat market tone remains…
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Australian Canola Exports Plunge 61% as Stocks Tighten
Australian canola exports plunged 61% in October to 62,710 tonnes as stocks tightened ahead of the new-crop harvest. Japan absorbed 91% of Australia’s October canola shipments, underlining its role as the dominant buyer. Russia expanded its grain and oilseed flows to Asia, shipping 3,500 tonnes of oats and 1,300 tonnes of rapeseed to China from…
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Russian Wheat Quality Edge Spurs Regional Demand
Russian edge on quality: Low protein levels (9–10%) in Argentine wheat and quality discounts on Southern Hemisphere supplies support premiums for Russian origin. Stable price spreads: Russian wheat maintains tight price spreads of $3–5/ton versus $15–20/ton in Argentina, signaling reduced basis volatility for buyers. Uzbekistan demand softens: Wheat imports projected at 4.3 MMT in 2025/26,…
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Russian Wheat Export Forecast Held at 44Mt
Bullish: Higher Russian and global wheat production alongside stable EU exports improves overall supply security into 2025/26. Bearish: Steady Russian export forecasts and competitive Black Sea pricing around $263/tonne C&F point to ongoing pressure on international wheat prices. Structural: Russia’s move to anonymous exchange trading via Novorossiysk could create a new benchmark and increase market…
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Uzbekistan Wheat Subsidy Overhaul for 2026
Supportive: Uzbekistan to raise total cotton and grain support to 34.2 trillion soums in 2026, bolstering domestic wheat production. Neutral: Despite higher subsidies and digitalization, the overall impact on Black Sea wheat trade is expected to remain limited. Structural: Shift to a credit rating-based loan system and digital “Agrosubsidia” platform aims to improve financial discipline…
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Ryazan Region Grain Exports Top 51,000 Tons (2025)
Bullish: Stable outbound grain flows from Russia’s central region support continuity of internal supply chains. Bearish: Export volumes remain modest versus Black Sea terminals, limiting upside for regional freight and export margins. Neutral: Overall impact on Black Sea grain benchmarks and freight rates is assessed as neutral. Ryazan Grain and Quarantine Shipments Overview Rosselkhoznadzor reported…