Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Kazakhstan Durum Wheat Exports Plunge 54% — Outlook
Bearish: Kazakhstan’s durum wheat exports dropped 54% year-on-year to 46,100 tons in September–December 2025, with Italian demand collapsing 85%. Neutral: Turkey has become the leading buyer with 21,600 tons, partially offsetting losses in traditional EU markets. Neutral to Bearish: Export recovery hinges on transport subsidies from January 2026 to support the Grain Union’s 300,000-ton full-year…
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Russian Grain Export Duties Stay at Zero (Feb 3-10)
Zero export duty extended: Russia will maintain zero export duties on wheat, barley, and corn for February 3–10, 2026, preserving competitiveness in global markets. Indicative prices edge higher: Wheat, barley, and corn indicative prices all posted small week-on-week gains, signaling modest demand strength. Neutral to slightly bullish tone: Continued duty-free exports support steady Black Sea…
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Ukrainian Rail Grain Exports Shift to Hungary
Neutral to Slightly Bearish for Ukrainian logistics: Grain rail flows are increasingly concentrated on the Hungarian corridor, while volumes through Slovakia, Poland, and Romania decline, reducing route diversification. Neutral for Russian freight and fertilizer: Stable export volumes from Rostov Oblast and sustained global leadership in fertilizer exports underline Russia’s continued freight capacity, but highlight buyer…
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Brazil Corn Exports Cut for Jan 2026
Slightly Bearish: Brazil trims its January 2026 corn export forecast to 3.39 million tons, but still keeps shipment volumes well above last year, reinforcing global supply. Neutral to Slightly Bearish for Black Sea Corn: A firm full-year 2026 export projection of 44 million tons from Brazil adds competitive pressure on Black Sea origins in key…
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Ukrainian Feed Wheat Prices Rise on Strong Demand
Ukrainian feed wheat: Prices rose UAH 100-200/t week-on-week to UAH 8,600-9,900/t CPT on stronger trader demand and support from corn. U.S. wheat futures: Chicago contracts gained 6.6% in January, their largest monthly rise in two years, on dollar weakness and earlier frost concerns. Russian exports: First 47,700 t wheat shipment to Cameroon expands Russia’s African…
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Russian Wool Exchange Proposed to Boost Processing
Policy focus: Russia plans to launch wool exchange trading to create transparent, indicative pricing and consolidate purchasing. Underutilized capacity: Of 43,000 tons of wool produced annually, less than 10% is processed domestically, with the rest exported or wasted. Growth target: Authorities aim to increase wool production by 25% by 2030 through better logistics and aggregator…
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German Meal Exports Fall 11% — Market Pressure Rises
Bearish EU meals: German soybean meal exports fell 11% and rapeseed meal 22% y/y (Jul–Nov 2025), signaling weaker crush or demand across key EU buyers. Structurally supportive Black Sea values: Russia aims to cut grain’s share in ag exports from 36.9% to 25% by 2030, gradually prioritizing higher-value processed products over bulk grain. Neutral for…
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Black Sea Wheat Gains as Kazakhstan-Ethiopia Deal Looms
Kazakhstan–Ethiopia corridor: Ongoing talks position Kazakhstan as a strategic wheat and fertilizer supplier into Ethiopia and broader East Africa. U.S. futures firmer: Chicago SRW wheat closed at $198.96/MT (+1.03%), with HRW and HRS also higher on January 29, 2026. Black Sea price edge: Russian and Ukrainian wheat at $223–227 FOB remains $5–6/MT below key European…
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Black Sea Sunflower Oil Prices Hit New Low
Bearish: Sunflower oil FOB Black Sea fell $35.00/t to $1,210.00/t, hitting a new minimum and signaling pressure from weak demand or ample supply. Bullish: Rapeseed meal FOB EU jumped $30.30/t to $293.24/t, while palm oil and Asian soybean products hit new highs on tight regional supply and firm demand. Mixed: Soybean complex showed regional divergence,…
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Russian Fertilizer Capacity Surges, Ust-Luga Boosts Exports
Feed flows at risk: 15,000 tons of Kazakh feed meal detained at China’s Altynkol-Khorgos checkpoint over new <1.2mm particle size rules, highlighting rising technical barriers to trade. Surging Russian capacity: Russia has lifted mineral fertilizer production capacity by 23% since 2022, while European output capacity has contracted by 9% overall. Export infrastructure boost: The Port…