Author: Igor Nam
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Russian Wheat Exports Dominate Israel Market
Russian dominance: Russia’s share of Israel’s wheat imports has surged to 89% in 2024/25 from 39% in 2020/21, cementing its role as the key supplier and price-setter. Stable demand growth: USDA projects Israel’s wheat imports to rise to 2.15 million tons in 2025/26, supporting sustained demand for Russian exports. Pressure on rivals: Romanian and Ukrainian…
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Kazakhstan grain exports surge via rail to Central Asia
Bearish: Kazakhstan’s 14.8% YoY jump in grain exports to Central Asia tightens competition for Black Sea origin supplies into regional landlocked markets. Bearish: Strong rail logistics and higher imports by Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Afghanistan reduce the need for these buyers to source via Russian or Ukrainian deep-sea ports. Neutral/Bearish: Kurgan region grain flows to China…
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Black Sea Rapeseed Prices Drop on Record Harvest
Record harvest pressure: Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture forecasts a record rapeseed crop of 5.4 million tons within a 31.7 million ton total oilseed harvest, amplifying supply-side pressure. Global oversupply: Ample global and domestic rapeseed and soybean supplies are expected to keep prices under sustained downward pressure. Weak price environment: End-of-November OleoScope data shows rapeseed in…
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Black Sea Sunflower Seeds: Ukraine Faces Record Shortfall
Bullish (Ukraine farm-gate): A decade-low 2025 sunflower seed harvest of 11.4 MMT versus crushing capacity creates a 10.2 MMT supply deficit, supporting higher seed prices for growers. Bearish (Ukraine crushers): Raw material scarcity is set to leave nearly half of crushing plants underutilized, squeezing margins and forcing a shift toward soy and rapeseed. Bullish (Altai…
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China Soybean Imports Suspended: Impact on Global Market
Targeted Suspension: China has halted soybean imports from five specific Brazilian processing plants, not from Brazil as a whole. Quality Concern: The move follows detection of residues from a toxic pesticide approved only for seed treatment. Limited Volume Impact: Major traders like Cargill, LDC, and CHS can redirect exports from unaffected Brazilian facilities. Risk Premium:…
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Black Sea Wheat Prices Slump on Record Argentine Crop
Key Takeaways Bearish Pressure: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) raised its 2025/26 Argentine wheat production forecast by 1.5 MMT to a record 25.5 MMT, adding significant export competition to global markets. Price Reaction: Paris (MATIF) December milling wheat futures fell to €187.25/t ($217.15/t), while Chicago (CBOT) December SRW wheat in a shortened session closed…
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Kazakhstan Wheat Exports Target Kuwait Market
Neutral: Kazakhstan–Kuwait talks are at an early stage with no confirmed tenders or volumes, leaving near-term Black Sea wheat pricing largely unchanged. Structural: A potential long-term supply channel to Kuwait would diversify Kazakh grain exports and create a new, consistent Gulf demand center. Strategic: Any future Kazakh flows to Kuwait could redirect volumes away from…