Author: Igor Nam
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Tatarstan Soybeans Quadruple, Signaling Supply Growth
Supply growth: Tested soybean volume in Tatarstan reached 56,200 MT year-to-date, nearly four times last year’s level. High quality: About 99% of tested soybeans met safety and quality standards, with 82.5% categorized as food-grade. Structural shift: Soybean acreage expanded from 1,500 ha to 62,000 ha over the past decade, signaling a strategic move toward oilseed…
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Ukrainian Wheat Prices Fall Amid Global Supply Pressure
Bearish – Ukrainian prices: Milling wheat values at deep-sea and Danube ports are falling amid weak importer demand, logistics disruptions, and competition from cheaper feed wheat. Bearish – Global supply: Heavy Russian exports, strong Australian output, and a record harvest expected in Argentina are amplifying downward pressure on Ukrainian wheat prices. Bearish – Competitive quality:…
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Russia Oilseed Plant Boosts Crush to 3 MMT
Structural shift: Sodruzhestvo’s Kursk complex lifts Russia’s total oilseed crush capacity by 3 MMT, reshaping domestic oilseed flows. Bearish for raw exports: More of the Central and Eastern Russia oilseed crop will be processed domestically, reducing raw oilseed export potential. Bullish for value-added exports: Higher output of vegetable oils and meals positions Russia as a…
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Kazakhstan Grain Subsidies Boost Black Sea Flows
Bullish: Kazakhstan confirms 30 billion KZT in 2026 grain freight subsidies, locking in continued export support and underpinning Black Sea freight demand. Bullish: Subsidies helped drive a 47% year-on-year jump in grain and flour-equivalent exports to 13.4 million tonnes in 2024/25. Bullish: Domestic wheat prices surged over 30%, while FOB competitiveness improved via lower net…
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Indian sunflower oil imports plunge 44% to two-year low
Bearish sunflower oil: India’s November sunflower oil imports slumped 44% m/m to a two-year low as buyers switched to cheaper palm oil. Bearish Black Sea origination: Weaker Indian demand pressures Black Sea sunflower oil prices as exporters from Ukraine and Russia face reduced competitiveness versus palm oil. Demand shift in vegoils: Total Indian edible oil…
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China Boosts US Soybeans Bookings, Pressures Rivals
China is accelerating purchases of US soybeans, scheduling at least six bulk carriers from US Gulf terminals by mid-December, with a seventh vessel already en route. Beijing’s pledge to buy 12 million tonnes of US soybeans by year-end, plus nearly 2 million tonnes already booked for 2025/26, signals a structural shift in demand back toward…
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Russian Far East Corn Harvest Boasts Strong Yields
Russian Far East Corn Harvest Progresses with Strong Yields Primorye region farmers have harvested nearly 830,000 tons of corn so far. Average corn yield is reported at 7.9 MT/ha (79 centners/ha), indicating strong productivity. Harvesting of the remaining corn area is expected to be completed within the next two weeks, weather permitting. Total regional grain…
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Ukrainian Wheat Prices Calm Ahead of Q1 Rally
Ukrainian wheat stable: Prices are holding around $220/t CPT for milling wheat despite muted export activity. Potential Q1 2025 rally: Analysts see scope for Ukrainian wheat to rise to $245–255/t CPT on stronger seasonal demand. Kazakh price floor: Food Corporation’s 2025 procurement prices set a benchmark for wheat, barley, and oilseeds in the region. Neutral-to-bullish…
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Black Sea Sunflower Oil Prices Ease, Vegoil Strength
Bearish Black Sea Origin: December-delivery Black Sea sunflower oil eased by $10.00/t to $1,205.00/t, touching a weekly low despite strength in competing vegoils. Bullish Destination Demand: CIF Mumbai sunflower oil prices firmed, gaining nearly $10.00/t, signaling solid end-user demand for sunflower oil. Supportive Vegoil Complex: Palm and soybean oil prices rose across major hubs, helping…
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Ukrainian Grain Exports Surge in November
Bullish (Logistics & Demand): Ukraine’s November agricultural exports rose 12% m/m to 5.0 MMT, signaling improved logistics and stronger demand for regional freight and port services. Bearish (Prices): Ample grain supply from Ukraine and the EU (EU total grain exports +14% y/y) adds downside pressure to global corn and wheat prices and is likely to…