Author: Igor Nam
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Wheat Futures Fall Ahead of Key USDA WASDE Report
Bullish: Expectations for slightly tighter U.S. wheat ending stocks in the upcoming USDA WASDE report could offer support to global wheat prices. Bearish: Strong French wheat crop conditions and a record Canadian canola harvest forecast are adding competitive pressure and weighing on futures. Neutral: Markets are largely in a holding pattern as traders await key…
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Kazakh Grain Freight Halted to Novy Port – Dec 7-16
Bullish: Short-term domestic price support is possible for EU buyers as Kazakh grain faces temporary export constraints via a key Russian corridor. Bearish: Kazakh grain exporters face logistical bottlenecks and higher costs as rail freight to St. Petersburg’s Novy Port is suspended from December 7–16. Russian Railways Ban on Kazakh Grain Shipments Russian Railways has…
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Indian Rapeseed Meal Exports Surge to China
India’s rapeseed meal exports to China have surged by a factor of 39, reshaping Asian oilseed meal trade flows. Total Indian rapeseed meal exports reached 1.25 million tonnes in January–October, up from 1.18 million tonnes a year earlier. Strong Chinese demand and favorable weather are expected to drive a 7–8% increase in Indian rapeseeds acreage,…
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Black Sea Freight: Karachi Terminal Boosts Grain Flows
Bullish (Long-Term): New high-efficiency grain terminal in Karachi should reduce discharge delays and demurrage, improving competitiveness of Black Sea grain into Pakistan. Neutral to Slightly Bullish (Freight): Possible end to Russia’s fuel export ban could ease bunker and inland logistics costs if additional diesel reaches export markets. Black Sea Grain Logistics: Pakistan Terminal Development AD…
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Egypt SAF Plant Sparks New Demand for Used Cooking Oil
New SAF Capacity: Egypt will build its first sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plant in Alexandria with an annual capacity of 120,000 tons, using used vegetable oil as feedstock. Domestic UCO Demand: The project creates a significant new, consistent demand source for used cooking oil in a major Black Sea sunflower oil import market. Bullish Vegetable…
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Chinese Investment Spurs Russian Soybean Processing Boom
Neutral for Black Sea flows: New Russian Far East capacity is geographically isolated from core Black Sea export routes. Supportive for Russian soy growers: Stable local demand for up to 100,000 tons of soybeans annually in the Jewish Autonomous Region. Strategic for China-Russia trade: Deepens agri-processing integration, with potential exports of soymeal and oil to…
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Russian Export Duties Fall to Zero, Pressuring Grain Prices
Bearish wheat & corn: Russian export duties for wheat, corn, and barley are set to zero for December 10–16, increasing competitive Black Sea supply. Price pressure: Falling indicative prices for wheat and corn below the base level trigger zero duty, adding short-term downward pressure on global grain prices. Export incentive: Removal of the tax allows…
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FAO vegetable oil price index drops: Black Sea pressure
Reports indicate a decrease in the FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index. The global downturn suggests bearish pressure on Black Sea oilseed markets. Lower prices may weigh on crusher margins and farmer profitability but improve price competitiveness for Black Sea exports. FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index Shows Decline Global vegetable oil prices, measured by the FAO…
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Rostov Grain Exports Surge 2.5x in Q1 2024
Rostov’s Q1 2024 grain exports reached 6.4 MMT, a 2.5x increase versus Q1 2023. Wheat, barley, and corn dominated the export mix, with key demand from Egypt, Turkey, Bangladesh, and Pakistan. Bearish for global grain prices as Russia maintains strong export flow and competitive offers. Supportive for the Black Sea freight market, with firm vessel…
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Ukrainian Wheat Flour Exports Fall – Traders’ Alert
Ukrainian wheat flour exports fell 11% year-on-year to 26,000 tons in the first five months of the 2025/26 marketing year. Key buyers such as Moldova, the Czech Republic, and Palestine have sharply reduced flour imports from Ukraine. Domestic flour production is down 8%, while full-season wheat processing is forecast 2% lower, freeing more wheat for…