- Production Surge: Russia’s 2025 net wheat harvest climbs 11% year-on-year to 91.37 million tons, boosting exportable supply.
- Yield Strength: Average wheat yield rises 17% to 34.4 centners per hectare, underscoring strong agronomic performance.
- Regional Shift: Stavropol Krai overtakes Krasnodar as top producing region with 8.19 million tons.
- Bearish Price Signal: Larger Black Sea export availability is expected to pressure regional wheat prices.
Market Update
Russia is projected to harvest 91.37 million tons of net wheat in 2025, an 11% increase versus 2024, according to preliminary Rosstat data reported by Grain On-Line. The average wheat yield for winter and spring wheat has risen 17% to 34.4 centners per hectare, highlighting a strong productivity gain across key growing areas.
Regional output rankings have shifted notably. Stavropol Krai now leads national production with 8.19 million tons, up from 6.46 million tons in 2024. Krasnodar Krai moves to second place, producing 8.16 million tons versus 9.93 million tons a year earlier. Rostov Oblast drops to third, with output falling to 7.78 million tons from 10.13 million tons in 2024.
| Region | Wheat Harvest 2024 (mn tons) | Wheat Harvest 2025 (mn tons) | Change (mn tons) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russia (Total) | 82.30 | 91.37 | +9.07 |
| Stavropol Krai | 6.46 | 8.19 | +1.73 |
| Krasnodar Krai | 9.93 | 8.16 | -1.77 |
| Rostov Oblast | 10.13 | 7.78 | -2.35 |
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average Wheat Yield (centners/ha) | 29.4 | 34.4 | +17% |
Market Impact & Price Outlook
Market Impact: Bearish
The 11% increase in Russian wheat production, supported by a 17% jump in average yields, materially strengthens the country’s export potential for the 2025/26 marketing year. Larger exportable supplies entering the Black Sea market are likely to weigh on regional wheat prices and intensify competition for key demand in the Middle East and North Africa. Traders should closely track Russia’s export pace, freight dynamics through Black Sea ports, and any adjustments in export policy or taxation that could influence FOB pricing and global spreads.
Source: Market Data
Leave a Reply