- Bearish meal: Elimination of Russia’s sunflower meal export duty in January 2026 could pressure global protein feed prices as Black Sea export volumes rise.
- Bullish oil: A 37% jump in Russia’s sunflower oil export duty may tighten export availability and support higher international sunflower oil prices.
- Policy divergence: Lower costs on meal but higher taxes on oil shift incentives toward exporting more meal while favoring domestic oil use or higher FOB pricing.
Russia Adjusts Sunflower Export Duties for 2026
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has announced major changes to sunflower product export duties effective January 2026. The export duty on sunflower meal will be reduced to zero rubles per ton, removing a cost that has been in place since October 2022. In December, the duty on sunflower meal was 783.1 rubles per ton, so this shift represents a full elimination of the levy.
In contrast, the export duty on sunflower oil will increase by nearly 37% to 9,298.6 rubles per ton in January, up from 8,214.5 rubles per ton in December. These adjustments are based on updated indicative prices, with sunflower oil assessed at $1,200.2 per ton in January versus $1,169.5 in December, while sunflower meal prices declined to $195.7 per ton from $210.9 per ton.
Price and Duty Comparison
| Item | Period | Export Duty (RUB/ton) | Indicative Price (USD/ton) | Change vs Previous Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunflower Meal | December 2025 | 783.1 | 210.9 | Baseline |
| Sunflower Meal | January 2026 | 0 | 195.7 | Duty cut to zero; price down $15.2/ton |
| Sunflower Oil | December 2025 | 8,214.5 | 1,169.5 | Baseline |
| Sunflower Oil | January 2026 | 9,298.6 | 1,200.2 | Duty up ~37%; price up $30.7/ton |
Market Impact and Trade Flows
The removal of sunflower meal export duty is likely to make Russian meal more competitive in the global protein feed market. Lower export costs should support higher export volumes via Black Sea routes, potentially putting downward pressure on regional sunflower meal prices and challenging competing origins such as the EU and Ukraine.
The steeper export duty on sunflower oil, however, increases the tax burden on outbound oil flows. This may incentivize processors to prioritize domestic oil sales or to raise FOB export offers to preserve margins. The policy mix effectively encourages meal exports while discouraging raw oil exports, potentially deepening domestic value-added processing and altering traditional trade patterns in sunflower products.
Source: Market Data
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