- Bearish for Argentina: Soybean oil exports fell 19% month-on-month in November to 524,000 tons, with stocks tightening to 4.5 million tons.
- Supportive for Black Sea oils: Reduced Argentine export pressure may create room for Black Sea sunflower oil to gain market share, especially in India.
- Stable Asian demand: India and Nepal absorbed 65% of Argentina’s November soybean oil exports, highlighting resilient key-market demand.
- Mixed annual picture: January–November soybean oil exports at 6.48 million tons are slightly above last year, despite recent monthly weakness.
Argentina Soybean Oil Export Overview
Argentina’s soybean oil shipments declined to 524,000 tons in November, down 19% from October’s 646,000 tons and 24% below the 687,000 tons recorded in November 2024, according to Indec data reported by Oil World.
Despite the monthly downturn, cumulative January–November exports reached 6.48 million tons, marginally higher than the 6.33 million tons shipped during the same period in 2024. At the start of December, Argentina’s soybean stocks stood at 4.5 million tons, below prior-year levels, indicating tightening domestic supply.
Key Destination Markets
India and Nepal remained the dominant outlets for Argentine soybean oil, jointly importing 339,000 tons in November. This accounted for 65% of total Argentine shipments and slightly exceeded October’s combined 316,000 tons, while closely matching the 340,000 tons shipped to these markets in November 2024.
| Period / Market | Soybean Oil Exports (000 tons) | Change vs Previous |
|---|---|---|
| October 2025 total | 646 | – |
| November 2025 total | 524 | -19% vs Oct 2025 |
| November 2024 total | 687 | -24% vs Nov 2024 |
| India & Nepal (Oct 2025) | 316 | – |
| India & Nepal (Nov 2025) | 339 | +23 vs Oct 2025 |
| India & Nepal (Nov 2024) | 340 | ~ flat vs Nov 2024 |
| Jan–Nov 2024 total | 6,330 | – |
| Jan–Nov 2025 total | 6,480 | +150 vs Jan–Nov 2024 |
| Soybean stocks (start Dec 2025) | 4,500 | Below prior year |
Implications for Black Sea Oilseed Markets
The downward trajectory in Argentine soybean oil exports, coupled with tightening soybean stocks, has neutral-to-bearish implications for global vegetable oil supply pressure. Reduced competition from Argentina may create space for Black Sea sunflower oil and other regional oilseed products to strengthen their presence in key Asian markets such as India.
If Argentina’s export weakness persists through the Southern Hemisphere harvest, traders could see firmer pricing dynamics for Black Sea oilseed products in Q1–Q2 as buyers diversify away from Argentine origin.
Source: Market Data
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