- Bullish (Freight): Ukrainian grain exports are down 31.8% year-on-year, tightening Black Sea supply and underpinning rates on alternative export routes.
- Bearish (Grain Supply): Slower wheat and corn shipments reduce available Ukrainian export volumes, allowing competing origins to capture demand.
- Market Structure: Wheat exports are 20% behind last season and corn is 43% lower, encouraging buyers to secure tonnage earlier and potentially supporting upward freight momentum if demand holds.
Ukrainian Grain Export Overview
Ukraine exported 2.07 million tons of grain in December, bringing total grain and leguminous crop exports in the 2025/26 marketing year to 14.502 million tons as of December 24, based on State Customs Service data released by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food. Despite the December uptick, overall export performance remains significantly weaker than last season.
By December 27 of the 2024/25 marketing year, Ukraine had shipped 21.256 million tons, including 2.882 million tons in December alone. The current export pace is therefore 31.8% behind the prior year, underscoring a notable slowdown in outbound flows from the Black Sea.
Export Volumes by Commodity
| Commodity | 2025/26 Exports (to Dec 24) |
2024/25 Exports (to Dec 27) |
|---|---|---|
| Wheat | 7.691 million tons | 9.613 million tons |
| Corn | 5.339 million tons | 9.351 million tons |
| Barley | 1.223 million tons | 1.968 million tons |
| Rye | 0.2 thousand tons | 10.8 thousand tons |
| Total Grain & Legumes | 14.502 million tons | 21.256 million tons |
| December Shipments | 2.07 million tons | 2.882 million tons |
Ukrainian Flour Exports
| Product | 2025/26 Exports (to Dec 24) |
2024/25 Exports (same period) |
|---|---|---|
| Total Flour | 32.7 thousand tons | 37.0 thousand tons |
| Wheat Flour | 31.7 thousand tons | n/a |
Market Implications and Freight Outlook
The sharp year-on-year contraction in Ukrainian exports is tightening Black Sea grain availability and is broadly supportive for freight rates on alternative export corridors. Wheat exports are running around 20% behind last season, while corn shipments have dropped by roughly 43%, opening the door for competing origins to expand their presence in key importing markets.
Lower Ukrainian volumes may prompt buyers to secure tonnage earlier, particularly if demand remains stable into Q1 2026. This front-loaded demand for vessels on substitute routes could add upward pressure to freight rates. Market participants should track whether logistical conditions and internal supply dynamics allow Ukraine to accelerate shipments later in the season or if the current slowdown becomes entrenched.
Source: Market Data
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