- Higher Brazilian output: AgRural raised Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean production forecast to 180.4 million tons, 1.9 million tons above the November estimate and 5.2% above last season.
- Weather-dependent outlook: Favorable December weather supports the upgrade, but final volumes hinge on conditions through February and into March for later areas.
- Pressure on Black Sea exporters: A larger Brazilian crop is neutral to bearish for Black Sea soybeans, potentially weighing on prices and limiting export opportunities for Ukrainian and Russian suppliers.
Brazilian Soybean Production Forecast Update
AgRural has increased its forecast for Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop to 180.4 million metric tons, according to data reported by Oil World. The revised outlook is 1.9 million tons higher than the November projection and 8.9 million tons above the 171.5 million tons harvested in the previous season, reflecting improved yield expectations in key producing regions.
| Season / Estimate | Soybean Production (million tons) | Change vs. Prior (million tons) | % Change vs. Prior Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 (previous season) | 171.5 | – | – |
| 2025/26 (November estimate) | 178.5 | +7.0 vs. 2024/25 | +4.1% vs. 2024/25 |
| 2025/26 (current AgRural forecast) | 180.4 | +1.9 vs. Nov. estimate / +8.9 vs. 2024/25 | +5.2% vs. 2024/25 |
The upgrade is largely attributed to favorable weather conditions during December, which have supported crop development across several major producing states. Nonetheless, AgRural stresses that uncertainty remains elevated: final production will depend on weather patterns throughout January and February, with some later-developing regions requiring supportive conditions into the first half of March to secure current yield expectations.
Harvesting has already commenced on an early basis in parts of Paraná and Mato Grosso. These initial operations are expected to continue over the coming days, but more robust and widespread harvesting progress is not anticipated until January, assuming weather remains cooperative.
Implications for Black Sea Soybean Exporters
The larger Brazilian production outlook is neutral to bearish for the Black Sea region. A stronger Brazilian harvest increases global soybean supply and could exert downward pressure on international prices, eroding the competitiveness of Ukrainian and Russian soybean exports. South America’s strengthened position in global trade may narrow export windows for Black Sea origins, particularly if Brazilian exporters move aggressively on pricing.
However, the outcome is not yet fixed. Weather during the key reproductive and filling stages in January and February will be decisive, and any adverse shifts could trim Brazilian output and reopen opportunities for Black Sea suppliers. Traders in the region should monitor Brazilian weather and harvest pace closely, as potential production shortfalls could temporarily improve demand and pricing for Black Sea soybeans during the Northern Hemisphere marketing period.
Source: Market Data
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