- Corn strength: Ukrainian corn exports have reached 5.127 million tons in 2024/25 MY, with December alone accounting for 1.422 million tons and 78% of the month’s total grain exports.
- Export mix: Wheat still dominates overall grain flows at 7.656 million tons, while barley lags at 1.223 million tons and rye remains negligible.
- Year-on-year slowdown: Total grain and leguminous exports are down 33% versus last year (14.255 million vs 21.256 million tons), signaling weaker overall Black Sea export momentum.
- Market tone: Neutral to slightly bearish as strong corn execution contrasts with a slower total export pace, raising questions about logistics, production, or demand into Q1 2025.
Ukrainian Corn Export Performance
Ukraine’s corn export program has been a key driver of Black Sea grain flows in the 2024/25 marketing year. As of December 22, corn shipments reached 5.127 million tons, the largest volume among all grain categories. December was particularly active, with 1.422 million tons of corn exported, underscoring steady origin availability and functioning export corridors.
Grain Export Structure and Monthly Dynamics
Across all grain and leguminous crops, Ukraine has exported 14.255 million tons since the start of the season, with 1.823 million tons moved in December alone. Wheat remains the leading export at 7.656 million tons, followed by corn at 5.127 million tons and barley at 1.223 million tons. Rye flows are negligible at just 0.2 thousand tons, while flour exports are limited to 32.2 thousand tons, almost entirely wheat flour (31.2 thousand tons).
| Category | Metric | Volume | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total grain & leguminous exports | Cumulative 2024/25 (as of Dec 22) | 14.255 million tons | Down from 21.256 million tons YoY |
| Total grain & leguminous exports | Same date last season | 21.256 million tons | ~33% higher than current season |
| Corn | Cumulative 2024/25 | 5.127 million tons | Largest share among grains |
| Corn | December shipments | 1.422 million tons | 78% of total December grain exports |
| Wheat | Cumulative 2024/25 | 7.656 million tons | Dominant export grain |
| Wheat | December shipments | 337 thousand tons | Well below corn volumes |
| Barley | Cumulative 2024/25 | 1.223 million tons | Minor share in export mix |
| Barley | December shipments | 50 thousand tons | Limited monthly activity |
| Rye | Cumulative 2024/25 | 0.2 thousand tons | Exports remain negligible |
| Flour (total) | Cumulative 2024/25 | 32.2 thousand tons | Low export volumes overall |
| Wheat flour | Cumulative 2024/25 | 31.2 thousand tons | Dominates flour exports |
Market Implications and Outlook
The overall export pace remains noticeably slower than last season, with total grain and leguminous shipments lagging by about 33% year-on-year. This softer rhythm may reflect a combination of logistical constraints, reduced production, or weaker international demand. For corn specifically, robust December activity highlights resilient supply and corridor access, supporting near-term shipment programs. However, maintaining this tempo through Q1 2025 will be critical to satisfying seasonal demand from key Black Sea corn buyers and will shape price direction in an otherwise neutral to slightly bearish environment.
Source: Market Data
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