- Bullish: Russian winter and spring wheat acreage continues to contract, threatening exportable supply and supporting global wheat prices into 2026/27.
- Bearish Offset: Higher winter wheat plantings in Ukraine and France may partially counterbalance Russian output declines if yields and logistics remain stable.
- Structural: Russian farm profitability has dropped 62% since 2021, suggesting continued acreage pressure absent policy or price relief.
Russian Wheat Acreage Trends
Russia completed winter wheat sowing for the 2026 harvest at 16.1 million hectares as of mid-December, slightly below 16.2 million hectares in 2025 and 16.9 million hectares in 2023. The area remains well below the December 2021 peak of 17.8 million hectares, underscoring a multi-year downtrend in winter wheat plantings.
SovEcon also projects a continued decline in spring wheat sowings, with 2026 area forecast at 10.7 million hectares versus 11.1 million hectares in 2025 and 12.3 million hectares in 2024. The combined contraction in winter and spring wheat signals a structural adjustment in Russia’s grain sector.
Profitability Pressures on Russian Producers
The reduction in Russian wheat acreage is closely tied to deteriorating farm profitability, particularly after the introduction of export duties in 2021. Russian grain producer pre-tax profits fell to 69 billion rubles in January–September 2024, down from 93 billion rubles in the same period of 2023 and 181 billion rubles in 2021. This represents a 62% decline in profits over three years.
Weaker margins reduce incentives to sustain or expand wheat plantings, raising the risk that Russia’s exportable surplus will shrink further in the 2026/27 marketing year unless either domestic policies are adjusted or international wheat prices rise enough to restore profitability.
Ukraine and France Expand Winter Wheat Acreage
In contrast to Russia, Ukraine and France have increased winter wheat plantings to multi-year highs. Ukraine’s winter wheat acreage reached 4.7 million hectares as of mid-December, up from 4.4 million hectares a year earlier and marking the highest level in five years, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Economy.
France planted 4.8 million hectares of winter wheat, a three-year high, up from 4.7 million hectares previously, based on data from the French Ministry of Agriculture. While these gains may offset part of the anticipated Russian shortfall, weather, input costs, and ongoing geopolitical risks will remain key variables for actual output and export availability.
Market Impact and Price Outlook
The contraction in Russian wheat acreage is broadly supportive for global wheat prices, as the world’s largest exporter is likely to see reduced exportable volumes in 2026/27. With both winter and spring wheat areas trending lower and profitability still under pressure, traders should factor in tighter Russian supply scenarios when assessing forward price curves and hedging strategies.
Additional Ukrainian and French volumes could temper the bullish impact if weather conditions are favorable and logistics remain functional, but they are unlikely to fully replace the scale of Russian exports in a downside production scenario. Market participants should closely monitor Russia’s spring planting progress, evolving farm income conditions, and in-season yield developments across the Black Sea and EU.
| Region | Wheat Type | Season / Period | Area (million ha) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | Winter wheat | 2021 peak | 17.8 |
| Russia | Winter wheat | 2023 | 16.9 |
| Russia | Winter wheat | 2025 | 16.2 |
| Russia | Winter wheat | 2026 | 16.1 |
| Russia | Spring wheat | 2024 | 12.3 |
| Russia | Spring wheat | 2025 (forecast) | 11.1 |
| Russia | Spring wheat | 2026 (forecast) | 10.7 |
| Ukraine | Winter wheat | 2024/25 | 4.4 |
| Ukraine | Winter wheat | 2025/26 | 4.7 |
| France | Winter wheat | Previous season | 4.7 |
| France | Winter wheat | Current season | 4.8 |
| Region | Metric | Period | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | Grain producer pre-tax profit (bln RUB) | 2021 | 181 |
| Russia | Grain producer pre-tax profit (bln RUB) | Jan–Sep 2023 | 93 |
| Russia | Grain producer pre-tax profit (bln RUB) | Jan–Sep 2024 | 69 |
| Russia | Profit change vs 2021 | Jan–Sep 2024 | -62% |
Source: Market Data
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