- Logistical risk: Missile damage to Odessa port infrastructure is constraining Ukrainian soybean export activity and may reduce shipment volumes in the coming months.
- Price resilience: GM soybean bids are stable at USD 420-425/t CPT port, holding at the highest levels since August 2024 despite stalled upside momentum.
- Regulatory support: The EU’s one-year postponement of EUDR is expected to boost demand for Ukrainian soybeans and soybean meal into European destinations.
- Sentiment: Overall market tone is neutral to bearish as global soybean weakness caps price gains while local logistics remain strained.
Market Update
Purchasing activity in Ukraine’s soybean export market remains constrained by logistical disruptions and worsening conditions at Odessa ports. Recent Russian missile attacks have damaged terminals, warehouses, and critical infrastructure, creating operational bottlenecks that are expected to curb shipment volumes in the coming months.
Despite these challenges, bid prices for GM soybeans at Ukrainian ports held steady at USD 420-425/t CPT port last week, maintaining their highest levels since August 2024. However, price growth momentum has stalled as the impact of port attacks combines with broader weakness across global soybean markets.
Demand signals remain firm, with export flows accelerating during the first half of December. Additional support is coming from the European Union’s decision to postpone implementation of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) by another year, allowing buyers to increase soybean and soybean meal purchases into European destinations without the immediate burden of new compliance requirements.
Price Snapshot
| Commodity | Market | Price Range (USD/t) | Basis / Term | Weekly Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GM Soybeans | Ukraine Ports | 420–425 | CPT Port | Stable at highest since Aug 2024; rally stalled |
Market Analysis
Overall market sentiment is assessed as neutral to bearish. On the supportive side, underlying demand remains robust and prices are holding near multi-month highs. However, physical damage to port infrastructure presents a significant supply chain risk that could gradually erode Ukraine’s export competitiveness if capacity losses persist.
In the short term, constrained shipment capacity may tighten available supplies and help prevent a sharp price correction, yet broader global soybean market weakness is limiting upside potential. The EUDR postponement provides a valuable demand cushion from European buyers, but traders should closely monitor the pace of port repairs and any further attacks, as changing logistics could redirect flows and create regional pricing dislocations in the weeks ahead.
Source: Market Data
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