- Bearish: Ukrainian milling wheat prices declined by USD 2–4/ton across major ports to USD 208–216/ton CPT amid weak demand.
- Bearish: Ongoing infrastructure and energy disruptions are curbing export activity and pushing some grain companies to suspend procurement.
- Bearish: Competitive pricing for US wheat in Asian tenders is limiting upside potential for Black Sea origins.
Ukrainian Wheat Market Overview
Bid prices for Class 3 milling wheat at Ukrainian export terminals continued to weaken during the week, reflecting sluggish trade activity and persistent logistical bottlenecks. Buyers remain cautious, with several operators suspending procurement as they anticipate further downside in domestic values.
At Greater Odessa ports, purchase prices fell by USD 2–3/ton over the reporting period, settling in the range of USD 209–216/ton CPT port. Danube ports saw a sharper decline of USD 2–4/ton, with quotes now at USD 208–214/ton CPT.
| Location | Commodity | Price Range (USD/ton, CPT) | Weekly Change (USD/ton) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Odessa ports | Class 3 milling wheat | 209–216 | -2 to -3 |
| Danube ports | Class 3 milling wheat | 208–214 | -2 to -4 |
Systematic disruptions to port infrastructure and energy systems remain a central drag on market activity, constraining export flows and storage flexibility. These issues, combined with limited importer interest, are pressuring domestic bids and encouraging sellers to delay marketing decisions where possible.
International Competitive Landscape
Competitive offers from non-Black Sea origins are compounding pressure on Ukrainian wheat. South Korean millers recently purchased 20,800 tons of US milling wheat via auction, underscoring the attractiveness of US supplies in key Asian markets.
| Buyer / Destination | Origin | Wheat Type | Volume (tons) | Price (USD/ton, FOB) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Korean millers | USA | Soft white wheat (SWW) | — (part of 20,800) | 234 |
| South Korean millers | USA | Hard red wheat (HRW) | — (part of 20,800) | 244 |
| South Korean millers | USA | Dark northern spring (DNS) | — (part of 20,800) | 272 |
In addition, Russia’s Don branch of the Federal State Budgetary Institution certified the first railway shipment of 1,100 tons of wheat to Iraq from Kalmykia. The cargo complied with Iraq’s strict quality standards, including at least 28% wet gluten and a 280-second falling number, highlighting continued diversification of Black Sea export channels despite regional challenges.
| Shipment | Origin | Destination | Volume (tons) | Key Quality Specs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rail wheat shipment | Kalmykia, Russia | Iraq | 1,100 | ≥ 28% wet gluten; 280 s falling number |
Market Sentiment and Outlook
Bearish. The ongoing erosion of Ukrainian wheat prices reflects fundamental weakness rooted in infrastructure constraints and subdued export demand. The suspension of purchases by some grain companies signals expectations for additional price declines, while firm competition from US origins in international tenders caps upside potential for Black Sea wheat.
Traders should closely monitor progress in restoring Ukrainian port and energy infrastructure, as well as relative wheat spreads between Black Sea, US, and other key exporters. A sustained recovery in Ukraine’s price competitiveness is likely contingent on improved logistical reliability and renewed importer interest.
Source: Market Data
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