- Bearish exports: Ukrainian grain exports are down 28.6% year-on-year to 13.821 million tons, tightening global supply from the Black Sea region.
- Corn under pressure: Corn shipments dropped 40% to 4.75 million tons, likely shifting demand toward alternative origins and supporting rival exporters’ prices.
- Improving flow: December exports accelerated to 1.389 million tons in the first 17 days, signaling better utilization of export corridors and logistics.
- Supportive for freight: Constrained Ukrainian availability could underpin regional freight rates if demand for Black Sea grains remains steady.
Ukrainian Grain Export Overview
Ukraine exported 13.821 million tons of grain and leguminous crops from the start of the 2025/26 marketing year through December 17, down 28.6% from 19.359 million tons in the same period of 2024/25. The decline underscores ongoing logistical and production challenges impacting Black Sea grain flows.
| Crop | 2025/26 MY Exports (to Dec 17, mln t) |
2024/25 MY Exports (same period, mln t) |
Y/Y Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat | 7.61 | 9.175 | -17% |
| Barley | 1.222 | 1.898 | n/a |
| Corn | 4.75 | 7.969 | -40% |
| Rye | 0.0002 | n/a | negligible |
| Total Grain & Legumes | 13.821 | 19.359 | -28.6% |
Monthly Export Dynamics
Despite the weaker season-to-date performance, December exports show notable acceleration. In the first 17 days of December 2025/26 MY, Ukraine shipped 1.389 million tons of grain, up 41% from the 984 thousand tons exported during the full month of December in 2024/25.
| Period | Grain Exports (mln t) | Comparison | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1–17, 2025/26 MY | 1.389 | vs Dec full month 2024/25 MY | +41% |
| Dec full month 2024/25 MY | 0.984 | base | — |
Flour Export Performance
Ukrainian flour exports reached 31.2 thousand tons so far in 2025/26 MY, including 30.2 thousand tons of wheat flour. This is slightly below the 34.7 thousand tons exported over the same period in 2024/25, indicating modest weakness in value-added grain product exports alongside bulk shipments.
| Product | 2025/26 MY Exports (to date, ‘000 t) |
2024/25 MY Exports (same period, ‘000 t) |
|---|---|---|
| Total Flour | 31.2 | 34.7 |
| Wheat Flour | 30.2 | n/a |
Market Implications and Trade Flows
The sharp reduction in Ukrainian exports, especially the 40% drop in corn shipments, is likely to redirect demand toward competing origins such as the U.S., Brazil, and other Black Sea suppliers. This shift may support prices for rival exporters and tighten regional availability, particularly for feed grains.
At the same time, the recent pickup in December volumes signals improving use of export infrastructure and corridors. If the higher shipping pace can be sustained into Q1 2026, Ukraine could stabilize its market share in key importing regions, limiting upside price risk from supply disruptions.
From a freight perspective, constrained but steady export flows from Ukraine may be mildly supportive for Black Sea regional freight rates, provided demand remains firm. However, competition from Russian and Romanian origins, which continue to offer sizeable export programs, may cap freight and grain price gains.
Source: Market Data
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