- Supply Tightening: Global sunflower oil production is projected to fall to 25.1 million tonnes in 2025/26 from 28.2 million tonnes in 2023/24, reinforcing a structurally tighter market.
- Black Sea Export Decline: Combined Russian and Ukrainian sunflower oil exports are expected to drop by 3.0 million tonnes in 2025, disrupting traditional trade flows.
- Persistent Price Premiums: Sunflower oil continues to trade at a premium to other vegetable oils, indicating ongoing supply constraints despite emerging demand destruction.
- Argentina’s Limited Offset: Argentine exports are set to rise about 30% year-on-year to 1.6 million tonnes in 2025, but this accounts for only 12% of global trade.
- Demand Rationing: Consumption is forecast to fall by nearly 1 million tonnes in the EU-27 and around 0.5 million tonnes combined in China and India in 2025, highlighting demand destruction at current price levels.
Market Update
Global sunflower oil prices are holding premiums over other major vegetable oils, underlining persistent supply tightness. According to Oil World, global sunflower oil production is forecast to contract to 25.1 million tonnes in the October–September 2025/26 season, down from 25.3 million tonnes in 2024/25 and sharply lower than 28.2 million tonnes in 2023/24. This multi-year downtrend in output is keeping the market structurally undersupplied.
Trade flows are undergoing significant realignment. Global sunflower oil exports are projected to decline by around 2.7 million tonnes in 2025, driven mainly by Black Sea origin losses. Russia’s shipments are expected to fall by approximately 1.4 million tonnes, while Ukraine’s exports are set to drop by about 1.6 million tonnes, underscoring persistent production, policy, and logistical headwinds in the region.
Argentina has emerged as a partial buffer to these disruptions. Argentine sunflower oil exports are forecast to rise roughly 30% year-on-year to 1.6 million tonnes in 2025. Nonetheless, this volume represents only about 12% of global trade, leaving the market still heavily reliant on Black Sea suppliers and vulnerable to further disruptions there.
On the demand side, elevated prices are triggering demand destruction in several key importing regions. Analysts estimate that sunflower oil consumption could decline by nearly 1 million tonnes in the EU-27 and by around 0.5 million tonnes combined in China and India during 2025. Some additional relief is expected from Argentina’s higher production flows into export channels in early 2026, but this is unlikely to fully compensate for the reduced shipments from the Black Sea.
Global Supply and Trade Overview
| Metric | 2023/24 | 2024/25 (f) | 2025/26 (f) | Change vs 2023/24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Sunflower Oil Production (million tonnes) | 28.2 | 25.3 | 25.1 | -3.1 |
| Exporter / Region | Sunflower Oil Exports 2025 (million tonnes) | Year-on-Year Change (million tonnes) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | n/a | -1.4 | Lower shipments amid ongoing logistical and policy challenges in the Black Sea. |
| Ukraine | n/a | -1.6 | Export capacity constrained, further tightening global availability. |
| Combined Russia & Ukraine | n/a | -3.0 | Major driver of the 2.7 million tonne decline in global exports. |
| Argentina | 1.6 | ≈ +0.4 to +0.5 (≈ +30%) | Share of global trade at ~12%, partially offsetting Black Sea losses. |
| Global Exports (all origins) | n/a | -2.7 | Reflects broad-based tightening in exportable supplies. |
| Region | Estimated Change in Consumption 2025 (million tonnes) | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| EU-27 | ≈ -1.0 | Demand destruction as buyers pivot to cheaper vegetable oils. |
| China & India (combined) | ≈ -0.5 | Substitution and rationing in response to elevated price levels. |
Analysis
Bearish for Black Sea Sunflower Oil Exporters. The combined 3.0 million tonne reduction in Russian and Ukrainian exports highlights unresolved production and logistical constraints that are eroding their dominance in global sunflower oil trade. While tight global supplies and price premiums support near-term margins for exporters with available product, the loss of market share to Argentina and potentially other origins creates longer-term competitive risks. Simultaneously, visible demand rationing in the EU-27, China, and India suggests that prices have reached levels where further upside may be capped by demand destruction, increasing the risk of volatility if supply conditions ease.
Source: Market Data
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