- Zero Duties Extended: Russia will maintain zero export duties on wheat, barley, and corn for shipments from December 17–25, preserving export competitiveness.
- Mixed Price Action: Wheat and barley indicative prices rose week-over-week, while corn prices declined amid seasonal harvest pressure.
- Neutral to Slightly Bullish Tone: Stable demand for wheat and barley and continued duty-free exports support a neutral to slightly bullish bias for Black Sea grains.
- Policy Risk Ahead: Any reintroduction of export duties after December 25 could quickly alter export economics and freight flows from Russian ports.
Russia Maintains Zero Grain Export Duties Through December 25
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has extended zero export duty rates on wheat, barley, and corn for another week, covering the period from December 17 to 25. The decision keeps Russia’s grain exports highly competitive in global markets as the 2024/25 marketing year progresses.
The latest duty calculations are based on updated indicative export prices, which showed a modest increase in wheat and barley values and a decline in corn. This mixed price performance reflects varying demand dynamics and seasonal supply pressures across the main grain segments.
Grain Price Movements
| Commodity | Current Indicative Price ($/ton) | Previous Indicative Price ($/ton) | Weekly Change ($/ton) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat | $227.1 | $226.1 | +1.0 |
| Barley | $218.2 | $213.6 | +4.6 |
| Corn | $205.5 | $208.5 | -3.0 |
Wheat indicative prices edged higher to $227.1 per ton from $226.1, signaling steady export demand for Russian supplies. Barley registered a stronger gain, rising to $218.2 per ton compared with $213.6 previously, highlighting firm interest in feed grains.
Corn prices moved lower to $205.5 per ton from $208.5, reflecting seasonal harvest pressure and ample availability. Despite the decline, the absence of export duties helps keep Russian corn competitive against alternative origins.
Market Implications & Trading View
Bias: Neutral to Slightly Bullish. The continuation of zero export duties supports Russia’s role as a key supplier in global grain trade, particularly for Black Sea wheat competing against Australian and Argentine shipments. The modest uptick in wheat and barley prices aligns with stable or improving demand conditions.
The decline in corn prices likely reflects short-term harvest and logistical factors rather than a sharp deterioration in underlying demand. However, traders and freight participants should closely watch any policy signals regarding export duties beyond December 25, as a shift away from zero rates would immediately affect export margins, trade flows, and vessel demand from Russian ports.
Source: Market Data
Leave a Reply