- Brazilian exports slump: Soybean oil exports fell 41% year-on-year to 153,000 tonnes in Sep–Nov 2024, hitting multi-year lows.
- Biofuel demand surges: The B15 biodiesel mandate is driving domestic soybean oil use, with around 6.5 million tonnes projected for biodiesel in 2025.
- Tight export balance: Limited output growth of only 0.4 million tonnes caps export potential despite a modest 2025 export forecast of 1.4 million tonnes.
- Supportive for Black Sea oils: Reduced Brazilian export availability is mildly bullish for Black Sea sunflower and rapeseed oil demand, though palm oil competition tempers upside.
Brazilian Soybean Oil Export Dynamics
Brazil’s soybean oil exports dropped to 153,000 tonnes over September–November 2024, a 41% year-on-year decline and the lowest level in several years. This reversal comes after three consecutive quarters of export growth and reflects a structural shift in domestic demand rather than a temporary supply disruption.
The key driver is Brazil’s B15 biodiesel mandate, introduced in August 2024, which requires a 15% biodiesel blend in diesel. This policy has sharply increased industrial soybean oil use, diverting volumes that would otherwise be available for export.
Supply, Demand and Trade Outlook for 2025
| Indicator | 2024 | 2025 (Forecast) | Year-on-Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Soybean oil exports (million tonnes) | 1.37 | 1.40 | +0.03 |
| Total domestic consumption (million tonnes) | 10.0 | 10.5 | +0.5 |
| Biodiesel use of soybean oil (million tonnes) | 6.0* | 6.5 | +0.5 |
| Soybean oil production (million tonnes) | 11.33 | 11.73 | +0.4 |
*2024 biodiesel usage is an implied estimate based on the reported 2025 increase.
For 2025, Brazilian soybean oil exports are projected at 1.4 million tonnes, only slightly above the 1.37 million tonnes shipped in 2024. At the same time, domestic consumption is expected to rise to 10.5 million tonnes, with around 6.5 million tonnes dedicated to biodiesel production. Output growth is modest, with production forecast to reach 11.73 million tonnes, up just 0.4 million tonnes, underscoring the tight balance between internal needs and export availability.
Implications for Black Sea Vegetable Oil Markets
The structural reduction in Brazilian soybean oil export availability is neutral to mildly bullish for Black Sea vegetable oils. Sunflower and rapeseed oil exporters in the Black Sea region may see incremental demand from importers seeking to diversify supply away from Brazil, particularly in biodiesel-importing markets.
However, the upside for prices is tempered by competition from Southeast Asian palm oil, which remains a key substitute in many markets. Overall, Brazil’s biofuel-driven demand shift supports a slightly tighter global balance for vegetable oils, offering marginally improved price and volume prospects for Black Sea suppliers.
Source: Market Data
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