- Russia reclaims top spot: Set to export 4.4 million tons of sunflower oil in 2024/25, overtaking Ukraine’s 4.175 million tons despite lower harvest estimates.
- Tighter global balance: World sunflower oil production cut to 47.43 million tons from 49.73 million tons on drought across the Black Sea region.
- Firm pricing: Russian domestic sunflower oil prices are up 15–20% over 18 months and are likely to stay elevated amid tight global vegetable oil supplies.
- Oilseed diversification: Record Russian crops in soybeans, rapeseed, and flax underpin growing exports of soybean and rapeseed oil and meals.
- Key demand hub: India remains the largest buyer of Russian sunflower oil, taking over 2 million tons last year and anchoring export demand.
Market Update: Sunflower Oil Exports and Production
The latest FAS USDA December forecast shows Russia regaining its position as the world’s largest sunflower oil exporter in the 2024/25 season, with projected shipments of 4.4 million tons, slightly above last season’s 4.2 million tons. Ukraine falls to second place at 4.175 million tons, down from 4.711 million tons a year earlier, while Argentina is expected to export 1.45 million tons.
Despite Russia’s leadership in exports, USDA has cut its Russian sunflower oil export forecast by 300,000 tons versus November, reflecting a lower sunflower seed harvest estimate of 17.5 million tons. Consultancy IKAR is even more conservative, putting the harvest at 16.7 million tons due to severe drought in southern Russia, with implications for both volume and oil content.
Sunflower meal exports have also been revised downward by 100,000 tons to 4.54 million tons, while total Russian vegetable oil exports are now forecast at 6.71 million tons, down from 6.86 million tons in the previous estimate. In contrast, OleoScope projects sunflower oil exports at a more optimistic 4.7 million tons, citing processing capacity utilization of about 87% this season, even with production estimates of 16.8–16.9 million tons of sunflower seed.
The drought has impacted the broader Black Sea region, hitting sunflower crops in Ukraine, Bulgaria, and Romania. According to IKAR’s Dmitry Rylko, low carryover stocks combined with reduced oil content in the current harvest could cap export potential below last season’s levels, tightening the global sunflower oil balance.
Russian Oilseed Complex and Export Structure
Russia has recorded strong harvests across other oilseeds, with total oilseed production at roughly 33 million tons. Soybeans exceeded 9 million tons, rapeseed reached 5.5 million tons, and oilseed flax surpassed 1.6 million tons. USDA raised its Russian soybean production estimate by 700,000 tons to 9 million tons, and increased soybean meal export projections by 200,000 tons to 900,000 tons.
The Oil and Fat Union expects total Russian vegetable oil exports in 2025 at around 6.8 million tons, about 13% lower year-on-year. Within that total, rapeseed oil exports are forecast to jump 30% to a record 1.5 million tons, while soybean oil exports are projected to fall 8% to 700,000 tons as flows and crush economics shift.
India remains Russia’s key sunflower oil destination, taking more than 2 million tons last year and continuing to anchor demand for Black Sea-origin supplies.
Key Volumes and Forecasts
| Item | Country / Source | Season / Year | Volume (million tons) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunflower oil exports | Russia (FAS USDA Dec) | 2024/25 | 4.40 | Up from 4.2 last season; forecast cut by 0.30 vs Nov |
| Sunflower oil exports | Russia (OleoScope) | 2024/25 | 4.70 | Higher estimate; 87% processing capacity utilization |
| Sunflower oil exports | Ukraine | 2024/25 | 4.175 | Down from 4.711 last season |
| Sunflower oil exports | Argentina | 2024/25 | 1.45 | Third-largest exporter |
| Global sunflower oil production | World (USDA) | 2024/25 | 47.43 | Cut from 49.73 due to drought in Black Sea region |
| Sunflower seed harvest | Russia (USDA) | 2024/25 | 17.5 | Lowered vs prior estimate |
| Sunflower seed harvest | Russia (IKAR) | 2024/25 | 16.7 | Highlights drought impact and lower oil content |
| Sunflower meal exports | Russia (USDA) | 2024/25 | 4.54 | Down by 0.10 vs November |
| Total vegetable oil exports | Russia (USDA) | 2024/25 | 6.71 | Down from 6.86 prior estimate |
| Total vegetable oil exports | Russia (Oil and Fat Union) | 2025 | 6.80 | Down 13% year-on-year |
| Rapeseed oil exports | Russia (Oil and Fat Union) | 2025 | 1.50 | Record level; +30% year-on-year |
| Soybean oil exports | Russia (Oil and Fat Union) | 2025 | 0.70 | -8% year-on-year |
| Total oilseed production | Russia | 2024/25 | 33.0 | Approximate total for all major oilseeds |
| Soybean production | Russia (USDA) | 2024/25 | 9.0 | Raised by 0.70 vs prior estimate |
| Rapeseed production | Russia | 2024/25 | 5.5 | Record-level harvest |
| Oilseed flax production | Russia | 2024/25 | 1.6 | Exceeds 1.6 million tons |
| Soybean meal exports | Russia (USDA) | 2024/25 | 0.90 | Up by 0.20 vs prior estimate |
| Russian sunflower oil purchases | India | Last season | >2.0 | Largest buyer of Russian sunflower oil |
Price and Strategy Implications
Domestic Russian sunflower oil prices have risen by approximately 15–20% over the past 18 months and are expected to remain firm into Q1 2025. The combination of drought-driven supply cuts, low carryover stocks, and potentially reduced oil yields in the Black Sea region underscores a structurally tighter global vegetable oil market than previously anticipated.
For traders, the resilience of sunflower oil prices versus earlier bearish expectations reflects ongoing strength in import demand, particularly from India, and limited supply flexibility. Price floors are likely to hold as long as crush margins remain supported by strong exports and tight seed availability. Logistics coordinators should closely track Russian processing utilization and potential shifts in flows toward rapeseed and soybean oil as Russia leverages its record oilseed harvests.
Source: Market Data
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