- Exports holding steady: Ukraine shipped 52,000 tonnes of rapeseed by December 8, with full-month exports forecast at 105,000–150,000 tonnes.
- Stable domestic pricing: Spot values remain around $550–560/tonne, with processors paying UAH 24,000–24,500/tonne amid tightness in alternative oilseeds.
- Forward curve developing: Initial 2026 forward contracts are emerging at $430–435/tonne CPT port for July–August shipments, indicating a contango structure.
- Sentiment: Market tone is neutral to slightly bullish, supported by sunflower shortages and steady export demand.
Ukraine Rapeseed Market Overview
Ukraine’s rapeseed export pace remains moderate, with 52,000 tonnes shipped by December 8, compared to 158,000 tonnes in November. Analytical estimates suggest December exports will total between 105,000 and 150,000 tonnes, in line with seasonal expectations and reflecting a stable external demand environment.
Domestic market conditions are steady, with indicative rapeseed prices at $550–560 per tonne. Processing plants are generally offering in the range of UAH 24,000–24,500 per tonne, with only isolated higher trades that do not yet constitute a broader upward trend. Overall, supply-demand appears balanced, limiting volatility in spot pricing.
Price and Volume Snapshot
| Indicator | Value / Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Rapeseed exports (Dec 1–8) | 52,000 tonnes | Moderate pace early in month |
| Rapeseed exports (November) | 158,000 tonnes | Reference for prior month flow |
| Forecast exports (full December) | 105,000–150,000 tonnes | Projected range by analysts |
| Domestic spot price | $550–560/tonne | Stable, conditional pricing |
| Processor bids | UAH 24,000–24,500/tonne | Some isolated higher deals reported |
| 2026 forward (CPT port) | $430–435/tonne | July–August small-volume shipments |
| Spot vs. 2026 forward spread | ~$120–130/tonne | Normal contango structure |
Fundamentals and Processing Demand
Processing demand is underpinned by shortages in alternative oilseeds, especially sunflower. Some crushing plants have increased their rapeseed purchases to compensate, which could gradually tighten available supplies if the sunflower deficit persists. This substitution effect provides modest upside support for rapeseed prices in the near term.
Despite these supportive factors, the overall market remains fundamentally balanced. The absence of broad-based price spikes suggests that current supply is adequate to meet export and processing needs, keeping sentiment in a neutral to slightly bullish zone rather than decisively bullish.
Forward Curve and 2026 Harvest Outlook
Forward trading for the 2026 harvest is beginning to take shape, with early indications at $430–435 per tonne CPT port for July–August delivery on small volumes. This level stands at roughly a $120–130 discount to current spot values, reflecting a standard contango structure and signaling expectations of adequate future production.
Analysts highlight January–March as the optimal window for more actively fixing 2026 forward prices, when visibility on crop conditions and global balances should improve. For now, market participants are advised to approach large forward commitments cautiously, using early indications primarily as reference points rather than definitive hedging benchmarks.
Market Sentiment: Neutral to Slightly Bullish
Overall sentiment in the Ukrainian rapeseed market is neutral with a slight bullish bias. Stable spot prices, steady export flows, and emerging processing tightness linked to sunflower shortages all contribute to a supportive backdrop. At the same time, the discounted 2026 forward curve suggests that the market does not currently price in major supply disruptions, keeping expectations anchored around adequate future availability.
Source: Market Data
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