- Bearish for prices: Russian wheat exports are forecast to rise to 44 million tonnes in 2025/26 MY, adding supply from the world’s largest exporter.
- Logistics strength: Rail grain exports are set to exceed 20 million tonnes, reflecting a 25% YoY increase and improved inland logistics capacity.
- Quality support: Over 84% of monitored wheat in Altai Krai meets food-grade standards, reinforcing Russia’s competitiveness in global premium wheat markets.
- Regional resilience: Record or near-record harvests in Central, Volga, Siberia, and Stavropol help offset output declines in the Southern Federal District.
Russian Wheat Export Outlook
Russian wheat exports are projected to reach 44 million tonnes in the 2025/26 marketing year, up 1.9 million tonnes from the previous season’s 42.1 million tonnes. This 4.5% year-on-year increase underscores Russia’s expanding role in global wheat trade and reinforces a bearish bias for international wheat prices as additional exportable supply comes to market.
Grain Production and Regional Dynamics
The total Russian grain and leguminous crop harvest is forecast at 138.4 million tonnes, with wheat output estimated between 88.5–90 million tonnes. Strong performance in Central regions, the Volga area, Siberia, and Stavropol Krai is expected to offset a 3.25 million tonne decline in the Southern Federal District. Notably, Siberia anticipates higher wheat output despite reduced acreage, highlighting yield improvements and regional diversification of production.
Rail Logistics and Export Flows
Rail grain exports from July to November reached almost 10.3 million tonnes, close to record levels, with wheat accounting for 89% of volumes. Around half of the season’s rail export potential has already been shipped. After a weak start in July and August, rail flows hit record monthly volumes over the following three months, driven by increased shipments from Central Russia, the Volga region, and Siberia, while the southern regions’ share declined.
Full-year rail grain transport (excluding legumes) is projected to exceed 20 million tonnes in 2025/26, compared with 16 million tonnes in the prior season and a five-year average of 18 million tonnes. This roughly 25% year-on-year increase in rail capacity and utilization enhances Russia’s flexibility to redirect exports away from traditional southern ports and could accelerate Black Sea flows later in the season.
Altai Krai Wheat Quality Profile
In Altai Krai, quality monitoring covered 3.3 million tonnes of wheat, representing 82% of the region’s 4 million tonne harvest. Of the tested volumes, 41.2% was classified as Class 3, 43.2% as Class 4, and 15% as Class 5. More than 84% of the wheat meets food-grade standards, strengthening Russia’s position in higher-value export segments and supporting sustained competitiveness in premium milling wheat markets.
Market Implications
The combination of higher exportable wheat supply, stronger rail logistics, and solid quality indicators points to ongoing competitive pressure from Russian origins in the global wheat market. This backdrop favors a bearish tone for international wheat prices, especially if the pace of rail shipments accelerates in the second half of the marketing year and further boosts Black Sea export availability.
| Indicator | 2024/25 (Prev. Season) | 2025/26 Forecast | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russian Wheat Exports (million tonnes) | 42.1 | 44.0 | +1.9 |
| Total Grain & Legumes Harvest (million tonnes) | n/a | 138.4 | n/a |
| Wheat Production (million tonnes) | n/a | 88.5–90.0 | n/a |
| Rail Grain Exports Jul–Nov (million tonnes) | near-record comparator | 10.3 | n/a |
| Full-Year Rail Grain Transport excl. Legumes (million tonnes) | 16.0 | >20.0 | ≈+25% YoY |
| Altai Krai Wheat: Class 3 Share | n/a | 41.2% | n/a |
| Altai Krai Wheat: Class 4 Share | n/a | 43.2% | n/a |
| Altai Krai Wheat: Class 5 Share | n/a | 15.0% | n/a |
| Altai Krai Wheat: Food-Grade Share | n/a | >84% | n/a |
Source: Market Data
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