- Bullish: Higher Russian and global wheat production alongside stable EU exports improves overall supply security into 2025/26.
- Bearish: Steady Russian export forecasts and competitive Black Sea pricing around $263/tonne C&F point to ongoing pressure on international wheat prices.
- Structural: Russia’s move to anonymous exchange trading via Novorossiysk could create a new benchmark and increase market transparency.
- Sentiment: Overall stance is neutral to slightly bearish as supply growth outweighs demand signals.
USDA Wheat and Feed Grain Update
The US Department of Agriculture kept its Russian wheat export forecast for 2025/26 unchanged at 44 million tonnes, despite lifting the Russian wheat harvest estimate by 1 million tonnes to 87.5 million tonnes. EU wheat export projections were also held steady at 33 million tonnes, reinforcing expectations of abundant exportable supply from key origins.
For feed grains, USDA maintained Russian feed grain export forecasts at 6.81 million tonnes while increasing the harvest outlook to 37.48 million tonnes from 36.98 million tonnes. Russian corn exports were left at 3 million tonnes, with production estimates raised to 14.5 million tonnes from 14.1 million tonnes. Global wheat production for the current season is now projected at 837.81 million tonnes, up sharply from 828.89 million tonnes in November, underscoring a more comfortable global balance sheet.
| Region / Commodity | Metric | Current Estimate | Previous Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russia Wheat | Exports 2025/26 | 44.0 mln t | 44.0 mln t |
| Russia Wheat | Harvest 2025/26 | 87.5 mln t | 86.5 mln t |
| EU Wheat | Exports 2025/26 | 33.0 mln t | 33.0 mln t |
| Russia Feed Grains | Exports | 6.81 mln t | 6.81 mln t |
| Russia Feed Grains | Harvest | 37.48 mln t | 36.98 mln t |
| Russia Corn | Exports | 3.0 mln t | 3.0 mln t |
| Russia Corn | Harvest | 14.5 mln t | 14.1 mln t |
| Global Wheat | Production (current season) | 837.81 mln t | 828.89 mln t |
Russia’s Anonymous Wheat Exchange Trading
Russia’s National Commodity Exchange (NCE) has begun testing anonymous trading for grade 4 wheat with 12.5% protein content, with deliveries on CPT Novorossiysk terms. The platform allows for rail shipments with a minimum lot of 70 tonnes and road shipments from 30 tonnes, serving KSK grain terminal, Novorossiysk Grain Terminal, and Novorossiysk Bread Products Plant as delivery bases.
Full commercial launch is scheduled for January 1, 2026, with integration into Russia’s Federal State Information System “Grain” and Digital Logistics to secure priority rail transportation. The initiative is expected to increase transparency, broaden access for producers, and potentially create a liquid Novorossiysk-based benchmark for Russian wheat.
Jordan Wheat Tender and Black Sea Price Signals
Jordan’s state buyer MIT purchased 60,000 tonnes of milling wheat from operator Build at $263 per tonne C&F for delivery to Aqaba between February 16–28, 2026. This volume represents half of the planned 120,000 tonne tender, with the remaining volume yet to be awarded.
| Supplier | Volume (tonnes) | Price ($/t C&F) | Delivery Window |
|---|---|---|---|
| Build (purchased) | 60,000 | $263.00 | Feb 16–28, 2026 |
| CHS | — | $264.79 | Feb 16–28, 2026 |
| COFCO | — | $264.85 | Feb 16–28, 2026 |
| Cargill | — | $266.85 | Feb 16–28, 2026 |
| Ameropa | — | $266.89 | Feb 16–28, 2026 |
The narrow bid spread of just $3.89 per tonne across major global traders highlights tight competition for Q1 2026 demand and helps anchor Black Sea-origin wheat values around the low-to-mid $260s per tonne C&F into the Eastern Mediterranean.
Market Implications and Sentiment
The combination of rising global wheat production and unchanged Russian and EU export expectations points to adequate supply and limits immediate upside for prices. The decision to hold Russia’s export forecast at 44 million tonnes, even with a higher harvest, suggests either greater anticipated domestic use or caution over logistical and policy risks, but still signals strong export availability.
Jordan’s tender result provides a fresh price marker for Black Sea wheat in early 2026, while Russia’s move toward anonymous exchange-based trading at Novorossiysk may gradually shift price discovery away from purely bilateral and OTC structures. Overall, market sentiment is assessed as neutral to slightly bearish, with increased supply and improving trading infrastructure weighing on price expectations.
Source: Market Data
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