- Bearish domestic trend: Russian producer wheat prices fell 5.3% year-on-year to RUB 12,293/MT, with key export regions like Southern Russia seeing notable declines.
- Export strength: December wheat exports are forecast at 4.3 million MT, above last year and the five-year average, with 900,000 MT already shipped in the first eight days.
- Competitive FOB pricing: Russian wheat FOB prices hold at $227.50/MT, undercutting or matching many competing origins despite stronger global harvests.
- Policy support: The export duty drops to zero from December 10, enhancing Russian price competitiveness and creating regional arbitrage opportunities.
- Weather protection: Forecasted low temperatures are offset by expected snow cover, limiting risks to winter crops and supporting supply continuity.
International Wheat Price Snapshot (FOB, December Delivery)
| Origin | Protein | Price (FOB, $/MT) | Weekly Change ($/MT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | 12.5% | 227.50 | 0 |
| France | – | 228 | +1 |
| Romania | – | 234 | +2 |
| United States | – | 243 | +6 |
| Ukraine | 11.5% | 228 | -1 |
| Argentina | – | 214 | +5 |
Russian Domestic Grain Prices (End-October, Year-on-Year)
| Commodity | Average Price (RUB/MT) | YoY Change (RUB/MT) | YoY Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat (producer average) | 12,293 | -691 | -5.3% |
| Corn | 13,380 | 0 | 0% |
| Barley | 13,035 | n/a | +7.4% |
| Rye | 11,014 | n/a | +28.0% |
| Millet | 9,378 | n/a | -18.1% |
Regional Russian Wheat Prices
| Region | Specification | Price Range (RUB/MT) | Change (RUB/MT) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Russia | Grade 4, 12.5% protein, EXW (excl. VAT) | 13,500–13,700 | -550 | Key export hub; notable domestic softening |
| Volga Region | Wheat, EXW (excl. VAT) | 11,800–12,400 | -150 | Moderate declines |
| Central Russia | Wheat, EXW (excl. VAT) | 12,000–12,500 | 0 | Stable prices |
| Siberia | Wheat, EXW (excl. VAT) | 9,200–10,500 | 0 | Supported by rail transportation subsidies |
Export Port Pricing (Russia)
| Location / Delivery | Price (RUB/MT) | Change (RUB/MT) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep-water ports (road delivery) | 15,200–15,400 | -400 | Export bid prices weakened |
| Deep-water ports (rail delivery) | 16,000 | 0 | Quotes unchanged |
| Shallow-water ports | 14,600 | 0 | Prices stabilized |
Export Volumes and Policy Update
Russian wheat export prices for December delivery remain stable at $227.50/MT FOB, maintaining a discount or parity versus key competitors such as France, Romania, and Ukraine. This price level supports sustained export momentum despite a broadly well-supplied global wheat market.
December wheat exports are projected at 4.3 million MT, above both last year’s 4.15 million MT and the five-year average of 4 million MT. In the first eight days of December alone, shipments have already reached approximately 900,000 MT, underscoring strong demand for Black Sea origin wheat.
From December 10, the Russian wheat export duty will fall to zero, down from RUB 8.9/MT. The removal of this levy, combined with lower domestic prices in key producing regions, enhances Russian competitiveness and could exert additional pressure on Ukrainian and Romanian wheat prices.
Domestic Market Dynamics
Domestic producer prices for wheat averaged RUB 12,293/MT at end-October, a 5.3% year-on-year decline, reflecting ample supply and subdued internal demand. Southern Russia, the main export corridor, recorded a RUB 550 drop for grade 4 wheat to RUB 13,500–13,700/MT (EXW, excluding VAT), opening room for more aggressive export offers.
While the Volga region also saw modest price reductions, Central Russia and Siberia remained broadly stable. In Siberia, rail transportation subsidies continue to support prices despite the broader downward trend, creating potential arbitrage flows from inland regions to export terminals.
Other grains showed mixed performance: corn was flat, barley gained 7.4% year-on-year, rye surged 28%, and millet fell 18.1%. This divergence highlights shifting demand patterns and relative value opportunities within the Russian feed and milling complex.
Weather and Crop Conditions
Forecasts indicate temperatures of -15°C to -20°C in southern Central Russia and southwestern Volga regions. However, expected snow cover formation should protect winter crops from significant frost damage, supporting the outlook for continued strong supply in the upcoming season.
Market Impact and Trade Strategy
The overall impact on Black Sea wheat is neutral to bearish. The combination of zero export duty, weak domestic prices, and logistics subsidies in Siberia strengthens Russia’s export position but also caps price upside amid record global harvests, including Canada’s revised 40 million MT forecast.
For traders, the current environment favors short- to medium-term strategies that leverage Russian FOB discounts versus European origins. The stable $227.50/MT FOB level appears defensive relative to fundamentals and could prompt further competitive pricing if domestic weakness in Southern Russia persists.
Source: Market Data
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