- Bullish: Ukrainian sunflower seed prices climbed to UAH 28,400–29,500/tonne on strong processor competition and structurally tight supply after the 2025 production shortfall.
- Bullish: Expanded crushing capacity in central and southern regions is outpacing seed availability, forcing processors to pay up and absorb margin compression to secure feedstock.
- Bullish: Sunflower oil prices are firming, adding support to seed values even though raw material prices are rising faster than finished products.
- Bearish: Persistently squeezed crush margins could eventually lead to lower run rates, capacity cuts, or higher downstream prices, tempering further upside in seed values.
Ukrainian Sunflower Seed Market Update
Ukrainian sunflower seed prices continued their gradual ascent last week as crushers intensified competition for increasingly limited supplies. Purchase prices reached UAH 28,400–29,500 per tonne on an SRT (self-delivery to enterprise) basis, underlining the tightening balance between seed availability and processing demand.
The primary driver is a notable reduction in Ukraine’s 2025 sunflower seed harvest, which has left overall raw material supply insufficient to fully utilize the country’s expanded crushing capacity. Central and southern regions are facing the most acute tightness, where large and modern plants are directly competing for the same pool of stocks.
While the sunflower oil market has shown modest gains, the appreciation in raw seed prices has been more pronounced. This divergence indicates that processors are currently absorbing margin pressure rather than passing the full cost increase through to oil buyers, at least in the near term.
Multi-commodity plants with a primary focus on soybeans or rapeseed are offering comparatively lower sunflower seed bids of UAH 27,500–27,700 per tonne on a CPT basis. This highlights their greater pricing flexibility versus dedicated sunflower crushers, which are more exposed to the current tightness.
Price Comparison and Processor Bids
| Market Segment | Price Range | Delivery Basis | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunflower seed (main crushers) | UAH 28,400–29,500/tonne | SRT (self-delivery to enterprise) | Driven by intense competition and tight supply |
| Sunflower seed (alternative processors) | UAH 27,500–27,700/tonne | CPT | Soy/rapeseed-focused plants, more pricing flexibility |
Market Analysis and Outlook
The combination of lower 2025 production and expanded crushing capacity has created a structural supply deficit in Ukraine’s sunflower seed market, underpinning a bullish near-term outlook for seed prices. As crushers compete to secure volume, the spread between seed costs and sunflower oil prices is narrowing, pressuring processing margins.
If margin compression persists, processors may be forced to adjust by reducing run rates, selectively idling capacity, or lifting offer prices for oil and meal. Any such shift could alter trade flows for both seeds and oil, with potential implications for export competitiveness. Market participants should track crush margins and regional procurement dynamics closely as indicators of whether the current price strength in seeds can be sustained.
Source: Market Data
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