- India’s rapeseed meal exports to China have surged by a factor of 39, reshaping Asian oilseed meal trade flows.
- Total Indian rapeseed meal exports reached 1.25 million tonnes in January–October, up from 1.18 million tonnes a year earlier.
- Strong Chinese demand and favorable weather are expected to drive a 7–8% increase in Indian rapeseeds acreage, likely resulting in a record crop.
- Bearish for global prices: Increased Indian supply intensifies competition for Black Sea exporters and adds pressure to global oilseed and meal values.
Indian Rapeseed Meal Exports Surge to China
Indian rapeseed meal exports to China have reportedly increased by a factor of 39, marking a sharp shift in regional trade flows and underscoring China’s growing dependence on Indian-origin meal. This surge has become the dominant driver of India’s overall rapeseed meal export program so far this year.
Export Volumes and Trade Flows
From January to October, India shipped a total of 1.25 million tonnes of rapeseed meal, compared with 1.18 million tonnes during the same period last year. The jump in Chinese buying is the key factor behind this increase, signaling heightened competition for other major suppliers into Asian markets.
| Period | Indian Rapeseed Meal Exports (million tonnes) |
|---|---|
| Jan–Oct (Previous Year) | 1.18 |
| Jan–Oct (Current Year) | 1.25 |
Production Outlook and Acreage Expansion
Looking ahead, Indian farmers are expected to expand rapeseeds acreage by 7–8%, driven by favorable weather and sustained demand from China. This expansion could push India’s rapeseeds crop to a new record, reinforcing its role as a key supplier of rapeseed meal in the global market.
| Indicator | Expected Change |
|---|---|
| Indian Rapeseeds Acreage | +7–8% |
| Indian Rapeseeds Crop | Potential record |
Market Impact and Price Outlook
Bearish: The rapid growth in Indian supply targeted at China increases competition for Black Sea exporters, particularly in Asian destinations. A record Indian rapeseeds crop would add additional volume to the global balance sheet, exerting downward pressure on international oilseed and meal prices. If India maintains this aggressive export pace, Black Sea origin rapeseeds and products will likely face tighter margins and reduced market share in Asia.
Source: Market Data
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