- Bearish for Black Sea wheat: Thailand’s tender explicitly excludes Russian and Ukrainian origins, removing a key demand outlet.
- Steady demand for alternative origins: 240,000 tonnes of feed wheat secured on optional-origin terms, supporting exporters outside Russia, Ukraine, Brazil, and Pakistan.
- Forward demand visibility: Shipments scheduled across H1 2026 provide longer-term demand support for non-excluded suppliers.
Thailand Tender Overview
A group of Thai importers purchased 240,000 tonnes of optional-origin feed wheat in a recent tender, with trading house Bunge selling the grain at around $250 per tonne C&F. The tender explicitly bars wheat from Russia, Ukraine, Brazil, and Pakistan, pushing demand toward alternative exporters.
Shipment Schedule and Pricing
| Period | Shipment Count | Volume per Shipment (tonnes) | Total Volume (tonnes) | Price (C&F) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan–Mar 2026 | 3 | 30,000 | 90,000 | $250/tonne (approx.) |
| Apr–Jun 2026 | 3 | 50,000 | 150,000 | $250/tonne (approx.) |
| Total | 6 | — | 240,000 | $250/tonne (approx.) |
Market Impact and Analysis
The deal is structurally bearish for Black Sea wheat, as a major Southeast Asian buyer has explicitly ruled out Russian and Ukrainian origins in a sizeable forward tender. This exclusion shrinks the potential demand pool for Black Sea exporters and highlights ongoing buyer concerns over geopolitical and logistical risk.
While the price level of about $250 per tonne C&F confirms solid demand for feed wheat, the benefits will accrue primarily to exporters in non-excluded regions. Black Sea suppliers may be forced to seek alternative markets or sharpen offers to remain competitive in long-term contracts.
Source: Market Data
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