- Bearish – Ukrainian prices: Milling wheat values at deep-sea and Danube ports are falling amid weak importer demand, logistics disruptions, and competition from cheaper feed wheat.
- Bearish – Global supply: Heavy Russian exports, strong Australian output, and a record harvest expected in Argentina are amplifying downward pressure on Ukrainian wheat prices.
- Bearish – Competitive quality: High shares of Class 3 milling wheat in Russia’s Khakassia region further deepen exportable supply and intensify price competition in key destination markets.
- Bullish – High-protein demand: South Korea’s purchase of 50,000 tons of milling wheat, including 14% protein DNS at a premium price, underscores ongoing demand for high-specification grains despite broader price weakness.
Market Overview
Ukrainian export prices for milling wheat weakened this week in both deep-sea and Danube ports. Importers are displaying limited interest in higher-priced milling wheat and are instead favoring cheaper feed wheat or delaying purchases in anticipation of further price declines.
Domestic market pressure is being intensified by ongoing logistical disruptions linked to Russian attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure. These complications add costs and uncertainty to export flows, further undermining price competitiveness for Ukrainian suppliers.
Global Supply Pressure
On the global stage, abundant wheat supply is the dominant theme. Russia continues to ship large volumes of competitively priced wheat, while production prospects in Australia remain strong and Argentina is on track for a record harvest. This combination is weighing heavily on Black Sea and global milling wheat prices.
The competitive landscape has been further reinforced by official monitoring in Russia’s Khakassia Republic, where Rosselkhoznadzor testing showed that around 65% of 66,000 tons of soft wheat (approximately 44,000 tons) qualifies as Class 3 milling wheat. This high share of exportable-quality grain adds to Russia’s already deep supply pool.
Ukrainian Port Price Snapshot
As of December 2, 2025, Ukrainian wheat prices at major ports reflect the mounting bearish pressure from both local and global factors.
| Port Region | Price Change (USD/ton) | Current CPT Price Range (USD/ton) |
|---|---|---|
| Odessa | -2.00 | 214 – 221 |
| Danube | -1.00 to -2.00 | 213 – 220 |
International Demand Signals
Despite general price weakness, demand for high-quality milling wheat remains evident. South Korea recently purchased 50,000 tons of milling wheat for February 2026 shipment, including 12,900 tons of 14% protein DNS at $277.00 per ton. This transaction highlights a willingness among buyers to pay a premium for specification-rich grain, particularly high-protein origins.
Market Sentiment and Outlook
Overall sentiment for Ukrainian wheat is bearish. Exporters face a challenging combination of internal logistical bottlenecks and aggressive external price competition from Russian, Australian, and Argentine supply. Importers are leveraging the broad range of sourcing options to negotiate lower prices or switch into feed wheat where possible, limiting upside potential for Ukrainian milling wheat in the near term.
The confirmation of substantial volumes of high-quality milling wheat from Russia’s Siberian regions suggests that competitive pressure on Ukrainian exporters is likely to persist through upcoming shipment periods, especially in traditional Black Sea destination markets.
Source: Market Data
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