- Ukrainian wheat stable: Prices are holding around $220/t CPT for milling wheat despite muted export activity.
- Potential Q1 2025 rally: Analysts see scope for Ukrainian wheat to rise to $245–255/t CPT on stronger seasonal demand.
- Kazakh price floor: Food Corporation’s 2025 procurement prices set a benchmark for wheat, barley, and oilseeds in the region.
- Neutral-to-bullish tone: Current calm is viewed as a pause before possible upside if export purchasing intensifies.
Ukrainian Wheat Market Update
The Ukrainian wheat market is in a “wait and see” phase, with prices steady and import demand subdued. Interest from Egypt, Lebanon, and the EU has appeared but lacks urgency, limiting any immediate upside for export prices.
| Commodity | Price (USD/t, CPT Port) |
|---|---|
| Milling Wheat | $220 |
| Feed Wheat | $212 – $214 |
Analysts expect a potential price increase to $245–255/t CPT during the peak demand window from January to March 2025, assuming a seasonal pickup in export buying.
Kazakhstan 2025 Procurement Prices
Kazakhstan’s state Food Corporation has announced preliminary 2025 harvest procurement prices for wheat, barley, and key oilseeds, with the program scheduled to launch in December. These levels effectively establish a price floor for the domestic market and will guide planting and sales strategies.
| Commodity | Grade / Specification | Price (KZT/t, incl. VAT) |
|---|---|---|
| Wheat | Hi-Pro (27% gluten) | 115,000 |
| Wheat | Grade 3 (25–26% gluten) | 94,000 – 96,000 |
| Wheat | Grade 3 (23–24% gluten) | 88,000 – 90,000 |
| Wheat | Grade 4 | 75,000 – 77,000 |
| Wheat | Grade 5 | 65,000 |
| Barley | Class 2 | 75,000 |
| Sunflower | – | 205,000 – 210,000 |
| Rapeseed | – | 210,000 |
| Flax | – | 215,000 |
Market Sentiment and Implications
Overall sentiment is neutral-to-bullish. In Ukraine, current stability is seen as a consolidation phase ahead of a possible Q1 2025 rally if export volumes rise. In Kazakhstan, the newly announced procurement prices will shape planting intentions and help position local grain and oilseeds in the competitive Black Sea and Central Asian export corridors.
Source: Market Data
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