- Bullish: Sharp 45% drop in grain exports from Russia’s Kuban region tightens supply for Black Sea loadings, supporting FOB premiums.
- Bearish: EU’s projected 10% decline in sunflower oil imports signals weaker demand for regional sunoil, pressuring crush margins and prices.
- Neutral to Competitive: Kazakhstan’s 36% surge in rail grain exports boosts regional overland supply and heightens competition in Central Asia, Iran, and China.
Regional Logistics Update
Trade flows across the Black Sea and Central Asian corridors are shifting as Russian southern exports contract and Kazakh rail logistics expand. These changes are reshaping origination options, freight dynamics, and regional price relationships into early 2026.
Russia: Kuban Grain Exports Slump
In Russia’s key southern agricultural hub of Krasnodar Krai (Kuban), grain exports from January to October 2025 totaled 24.7 million tons, a steep 45% decline versus the same period in 2024. Officials link the fall in shipments to an “unsuccessful agricultural season,” with the regional grain and legume harvest down nearly 19% year-on-year. While Russia’s nationwide exports have been more resilient, the contraction from this core Black Sea supply base implies tighter availability for vessels loading out of southern Russian ports and supports firmer FOB and basis levels.
Kazakhstan: Rail Freight Volumes Surge
Kazakhstan is seeing a strong upswing in grain movements via rail. According to JSC NC KTZ, grain exports in the first 11 months of 2025 reached 9.7 million tons, up 36% year-on-year. Flows to Central Asian neighbors rose 32%, volumes to Iran doubled to about 800,000 tons, and transit shipments through Russia increased 3.2-fold to 2.2 million tons. Exports of processed products, particularly compound feed to China, climbed 57% to 4.2 million tons. This underscores both growing rail capacity and Kazakhstan’s rising role as a competitive supplier and transit hub into Iran, China, and other regional markets.
EU Vegetable Oil Demand Cools
On the demand side, the European Commission forecasts a 19% decline in total vegetable oil imports for the current season, with sunflower oil imports expected to fall 10% to 2.3 million tons. Softer EU buying is a bearish factor for Ukrainian and Russian sunflower oil exporters and crushers, as weaker intake from a key premium destination could pressure margins and encourage more aggressive pricing to clear surplus volumes.
Market Impact and Price Signals
The sharp reduction in exportable surplus from Russia’s Kuban region is broadly supportive for Black Sea FOB values, especially for nearby positions, as exporters compete for limited southern volumes. At the same time, Kazakhstan’s rail expansion adds competitive pressure in overland and transshipment routes to Iran, Central Asia, and China, potentially capping upside for some origins in those markets. In contrast, subdued EU sunflower oil demand weighs on regional oilseed crush economics and could keep sunoil and seed prices under downward pressure as the season advances.
| Region / Product | Period | Volume (million tons) | Y/Y Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russia – Kuban grain exports | Jan–Oct 2025 | 24.7 | -45% |
| Russia – Kuban grain & legume harvest | 2025 vs 2024 | n/a | -19% |
| Kazakhstan – total grain exports by rail | Jan–Nov 2025 | 9.7 | +36% |
| Kazakhstan – grain to Central Asia | Jan–Nov 2025 | n/a | +32% |
| Kazakhstan – grain to Iran | Jan–Nov 2025 | 0.8 | 2x |
| Kazakhstan – grain transit via Russia | Jan–Nov 2025 | 2.2 | 3.2x |
| Kazakhstan – processed products (incl. compound feed) to China | Jan–Nov 2025 | 4.2 | +57% |
| EU – total vegetable oil imports | Current season forecast | n/a | -19% |
| EU – sunflower oil imports | Current season forecast | 2.3 | -10% |
Source: Market Data
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