- Harvest Completed: Kirovohrad finished its sunflower seed harvest at 1.164 MMT, one month later than last season.
- Lower Output: Production declined 6.5% year-on-year due to heavy October rains and reduced yields of 1.7 MT/ha.
- Price Impact: Neutral to slightly bullish for sunflower seed prices as regional output falls but national balance impact remains moderate.
- Winter Crops Expansion: Strong increase in winter wheat, barley, and rapeseed acreage could weigh on 2024/25 grain prices if weather is normal.
Kirovohrad Sunflower Seed Harvest Update
Officials in Ukraine’s Kirovohrad region reported on November 28 that the sunflower seed harvest is now complete. Farmers harvested 1.164 million metric tons (MMT) of sunflower seeds from an area of 685,000 hectares, with an average yield of 1.7 MT/ha (17 centners/ha). Persistent October rains delayed fieldwork, pushing the completion of the harvest to one month later than in 2022 and limiting yield potential.
Last year, Kirovohrad produced 1.245 MMT of sunflower seeds, the largest regional volume in Ukraine. This season’s output is down by 81,000 MT, or 6.5% year-on-year, reflecting both the adverse weather and challenging field conditions during the critical harvest window.
Winter Crop Sowing and Acreage Changes
In parallel with harvest activities, the region completed its winter crop sowing campaign. Total winter crop area increased to 480,000 hectares, up from 392,000 hectares last year. This includes over 430,000 hectares of winter wheat, 49,400 hectares of winter barley, and more than 39,000 hectares of winter rapeseed, indicating a notable shift toward expanded winter grain and oilseed production for the 2024/25 season.
| Indicator | 2022 | 2023 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunflower Seed Production (MMT) | 1.245 | 1.164 | -0.081 MMT (-6.5%) |
| Harvested Area (Sunflower, 000 ha) | n/a | 685 | n/a |
| Average Yield (Sunflower, MT/ha) | n/a | 1.7 | n/a |
| Total Winter Crops Area (000 ha) | 392 | 480 | +88 |
| Winter Wheat Area (000 ha) | n/a | >430 | n/a |
| Winter Barley Area (000 ha) | n/a | 49.4 | n/a |
| Winter Rapeseed Area (000 ha) | n/a | >39 | n/a |
Market Impact and Price Outlook
The Kirovohrad sunflower seed outcome is viewed as neutral to slightly bullish for local prices. The 81,000 MT year-on-year decline in a key producing region tightens nearby supply and offers modest support to regional sunflower seed and oil markets. However, the impact on Ukraine’s overall national balance sheet is moderate, limiting the scope for a major price rally driven by this region alone.
With harvest now complete, weather-related uncertainty for the 2023 crop has largely been removed, and market attention is shifting to final national stock levels, crush demand, and export flows. At the same time, the substantial expansion in winter wheat and barley acreage points toward a potentially larger grain supply in the 2024/25 marketing year. Assuming normal weather, this increased area could be a bearish factor for forward wheat and barley prices, even as near-term sunflower seed fundamentals remain slightly supportive.
Source: Market Data
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