- Bullish: Fresh import demand from Algeria’s international tender supports global wheat prices, especially for Black Sea origins.
- Bearish: The EU’s larger soft wheat harvest and higher export forecast increase export competition and pressure prices lower.
- Trade Flows: Reduced EU wheat import needs limit potential outlets for exporters targeting the bloc.
Market Update
Algeria’s state grain agency has issued a new international tender to buy milling wheat, injecting fresh demand into the global market and drawing attention from key suppliers, particularly in the Black Sea region.
In parallel, the European Commission has updated its grain balance for the current season. The soft wheat harvest estimate for the EU has been raised to 110.9 million tons, while the corn crop forecast has been increased to 59.2 million tons.
On the trade side, the Commission now expects EU wheat exports to reach 31.0 million tons, up sharply from 25.5 million tons last season. At the same time, projected wheat imports into the bloc have been cut from 8.0 to 3.5 million tons. Total EU grain export potential is now seen at 45.4 million tons.
Key EU Grain Forecasts
| Item | Current Season | Previous / Last Season |
|---|---|---|
| EU Soft Wheat Harvest | 110.9 million tons | — |
| EU Corn Harvest Forecast | 59.2 million tons | — |
| EU Wheat Exports | 31.0 million tons | 25.5 million tons |
| EU Wheat Imports | 3.5 million tons | 8.0 million tons |
| Total EU Grain Export Potential | 45.4 million tons | — |
Market Analysis
The Algerian milling wheat tender is a supportive signal for Black Sea exporters, as origins such as Russia and Ukraine are frequent winners in North African purchasing programs. The tender will be closely watched as a real-time gauge of international price levels and competitiveness across origins.
At the same time, the EU’s larger soft wheat crop and expanded export forecast are fundamentally bearish. A bigger exportable surplus from the EU intensifies competition in core destinations, including North Africa, potentially squeezing Black Sea market share and putting pressure on offer levels.
The sharp reduction in expected EU wheat imports further narrows demand outlets for third-country exporters. Overall, Algeria’s tender outcome will help clarify how the market reconciles stronger import demand from key buyers with a more burdensome and competitive export landscape in Europe.
Source: Market Data
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